What Is Legacy?

By Steve Phillips

Reflections from the opening of the Obama Presidential Center—where the art was stunning and the history was honored, but the fighters who made it all possible, and the fight we are in right now, were largely absent.

Last week I spent a few days in Chicago for the opening of the Obama Presidential Center. I took in the speeches and the music, marveled at the architecture, and lingered over the extraordinary art commissioned and woven throughout the building. Common and The Roots and Stevie Wonder filled the air. It was, by any measure, a beautiful and moving celebration.

And yet I came away turning over a single question in my mind: What is legacy? A presidential center exists to preserve and distill the essence of a presidency. So as I walked through the exhibits and the archives, I kept asking myself what, exactly, was being preserved—and what was being left out.

It mattered that I was asking this question in Chicago. Because Chicago is not only the city of Barack Obama. It is also the city of Jesse Jackson, who passed away just a few months ago. The Jackson campaigns were formative for me, the beginning of my own political education, and the Center rightly includes Reverend Jackson in its account of the history (Reverend was the highest runner-up of any Democrat to that time in history). As I wrote in Brown Is the New White, to get from Martin Luther King Jr. in 1968 to the election of the first Black president in 2008, you needed Jesse Jackson in 1988. He was the bridge—from the movement and the crusade for the beloved community to “hope and change.”

It is worth remembering what Jackson’s legacy actually was, because it tells us something about the legacy now enshrined on the South Side. First, he rooted his campaign in the long freedom struggle. At the 1988 convention in Atlanta, he reminded the country that we are all standing on someone’s shoulders, and he brought Rosa Parks to the podium to make the point literal. He spoke of Dr. King buried not far from the convention hall. He carried that movement and that energy onto the national stage on purpose.

Second, he embraced and elevated the fiercest fighters. He celebrated Fannie Lou Hamer. He made Aaron Henry—who had stood with Hamer and the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party in 1964 to challenge an all-white delegation and the party’s complicity with white supremacy—the head of his Mississippi delegation. He identified openly with Malcolm X. After the 1984 convention in San Francisco, I was in the basement of the Hyatt on Union Square when he told his supporters that we have never won freedom at a convention. “A convention,” he said, “is a comma, where you pause and then go on. We will keep fighting at the ballot box, in the courts, and in the streets. Freedom–By Any Means Necessary.”

Third, he built on the organizing that already existed—the churches, the labor unions, the community groups, the people who had been in the trenches for decades. And fourth, he inspired a whole generation to carry the struggle for justice into the arena of electoral politics, and to show what happens when you organize and unleash the multiracial majority that he called the Rainbow Coalition: the old minorities, joining together, becoming a new majority.

Jackson learned much of this from Harold Washington’s historic campaign when e was elected the first Black mayor of Chicago in 1983. Washington refused to enter the race until organizers had registered 100,000 new Black voters. Then those voters turned out at historic levels, and he won—narrowly, and against ferocious racist backlash, in a city with almost no Republicans. The lesson was unmistakable: you build power by registering, organizing, and inspiring people, and then you turn them out. Those reforms that expanded and diversified the electorate, the new delegate-selection rules Jackson fought for, and the cracking of the psychological ceiling around a Black president—all of it paved the path that Obama would later follow. It is why Jackson stood in Chicago’s Grant Park on election night 2008 with tears streaming down his face.

That is the history I carried into the Center. And it is the source of my mixed emotions.

The Center’s honoring of the movement is real and admirable—the civil rights struggle, labor, the suffragists, the New Deal, all elevated and connected through the art. But as I moved through the building, I noticed who was there and who was not. The professionals and technicians were well represented. The fighters were harder to find. Where is Fannie Lou Hamer? Where are the organizers who knocked the doors and registered the voters and ran for local office? The uncomfortable truth, told plainly, is that Obama was a president elected by a movement—but he did not invest in that movement, and he did not define the battle.

The writer Ta-Nehisi Coates recently put his finger on the deeper problem. Obama, he observed, did not see the vulnerability of what he had built. It is so much harder to build things than to destroy them. Obama assumed the norms would hold, that the country prefers optimism, that the worst could not actually win. So he governed as if the gains were permanent. And we—all of us who were inspired by that era—made the same mistake. We underestimated the ferocity of the backlash to the first Black president. The warning was there: the Department of Homeland Security flagged the rise of right-wing domestic terrorism in 2008, a warning that was promptly squashed by those who did not want to acknowledge its intensity. We mistook progress for protection, and we failed to build and fortify the power needed to defend what we had won.

What I missed most, though, was a naming of this moment. There was little explicit reckoning with the assault on the pillars of democracy now underway—the rewriting of history, the immigration crackdown, the open hostility to the project of multiracial democracy, and the persistence of straight white American male preference in our institutions. The silence on the fight we are actually in was, to my ears, louder than the eloquence of the performances. The role of the artist, from Langston Hughes to Amiri Baraka to Margaret Walker, has always been to meet the moment and summon people to it. Fannie Lou Hamer responded to the challenges of her day. Would she have been welcomed here? In the years before the Nazis took power, some people warned of the danger. The question was always whether anyone would listen.

But we also need to be careful, because the easy move is to lay all of this at the feet of one man, and that move is itself a trap. The great-man theory of history—the wish that we could simply find another King, or that one president could carry the whole weight of justice—is exactly the thinking we have to resist. Obama made enormous sacrifices to govern and to advance the larger cause. It would be as wrong to put the responsibility for this moment on him and his family as it would be to imagine that any single leader could save us.

The real lesson of legacy runs the other way. If we look at the Obama era with the clear eyes of history, we see that it was made possible by the organizers, door-knockers, and those who ran for local office and won control of governments and changed public policy to meet the needs of all the people. That is what created the conditions for hope and change. If we understand that, then the urgent question is not what the Obama Center is failing to do, it is what we are doing?

What are we doing to name this moment and define the fight? To find and back the fiercest fighters and most tenacious organizers of our own day—the contemporary Fannie Lou Hamers and Dolores Huertas and Yuri Kochiyamas—and to put our time, talent, ties, and treasure behind them? To reinvest in and reinvigorate the very movement that Jackson came out of, helped strengthen, and that ultimately elected Obama? That is the work. Not waiting for federal power to be restored from above, but building it again from the ground up.

In the end, a legacy is not a building. It is the difference we make in one another’s lives—who we touch, what we encourage, what gets carried on after us. Each of us can leave one. King spoke of power as the means of implementing the demands of love and justice. That is the imperative of this moment, and it is what I took away from my walk through history on the South Side of Chicago.

Keep hope alive.

Twelve Years, Three Books, and a Question We Can’t Avoid

By Sharline Chiang

Twelve years ago—almost to the day—I sat in a Chinese teahouse in Berkeley, Imperial Tea Court, waiting to meet a man in politics I wasn’t sure I was up to snuff to work with.

It was the spring of 2014. I was a new mom with a toddler at home, trying to find my way back into the workforce. Before that, I had been a journalist and later a communications director for a few nonprofits. I knew how to tell stories. I knew how to write, edit, and shape ideas. But politics? That wasn’t my lane.

“The manifesto progressives need right now”

A writer friend had connected us. “He’s working on a book,” she told me. “It could be the manifesto progressives need right now.” The man’s name was Steve Phillips. He was based in San Francisco and looking for a book coach—someone to help refine his thinking, sharpen his arguments, and wrestle the manuscript into form.

I was nervous. I had done my homework. Steve had a long, serious history in politics—from being a student organizing leader for both of Jesse Jackson’s presidential campaigns, to becoming the youngest elected official in San Francisco as president of the school board, to launching one of the first independent political action committees supporting Barack Obama, long before Obama’s candidacy was considered viable. Steve and his wife Susan were also early supporters of Kamala Harris.

This was someone deeply embedded in American political life. I was a former education reporter who had never covered national politics before, or coached an author, or written a book. 

He took a chance on me
As I sat there, waiting, a tall Black man walked in—slightly flustered, apologizing with a self-deprecating laugh. He had missed the Berkeley BART stop, ended up all the way in Orinda, and had to double back. I found him immediately disarming—thoughtful, unassuming, grounded. Within minutes we began chatting easily; I relaxed. I was struck by his clarity of purpose. His lifelong commitment to democracy. His deep belief in equity and justice. His insistence that the unfinished work of the civil rights movement still mattered—and that it was urgent.

At one point, I tried to talk him out of hiring me. “I don’t know if I can do this,” I told him. “I’ve never been a book coach and I don’t know much about politics.” He paused, then said essentially: “I think we should try. I’m new to writing a book. You’re new to book coaching. And because you’re an outsider to politics you’ll be able to ask questions from a layperson’s perspective. Let’s figure it out together.” He took a chance on me.

A good team
As it turned out, we worked well together, really well. Steve brought bold, unflinching ideas. He wanted to challenge the nation—especially the Democratic Party—with a kind of tough love rooted in a belief that our power to bring about positive change for all lies in our diversity, not in spite of it. He sought to ground readers in the lessons of history and the possibilities our ancestors have already proven, leaning toward hope rather than cynicism.

He was also incredibly disciplined. A marathon runner, he turned in volumes of pages at a steady pace. Luckily he had the patience, and temperament, to bear my hundreds of “red marks”—endless tracked changes, suggested edits, questions, and ideas. I pushed him. He listened. We made a good team.

Two national bestsellers
That first project became Brown Is the New White. With the help of a dedicated in-house team and nationwide launch network of friends and supporters, the book became a New York Times and Washington Post bestseller. But more importantly, it helped shift the national political conversation and eye toward the importance and value of voters of color, and the reality that they are central to winning elections.

The book’s core argument—that a “New American Majority” consisting of people of color and progressive whites could reshape the political landscape—entered the national discourse in a way that has had lasting impact.

Our next book, How We Win the Civil War, aimed to push the national conversation even further. When we first proposed the title, the publisher worried it sounded too extreme, too hyperbolic. Then came January 6. Suddenly, the language felt spot on.

Going for a three-peat with Are White Men Smarter Than Everybody Else?
Now, more than a decade after that first teahouse meeting, we are about to release a third book.

On Tuesday, April 21, Steve’s new book—Are White Men Smarter Than Everybody Else?—launches into the world. The book asks a question that many people feel but few are willing to say out loud: Are white men (who only make up 29% of the U.S. population) disproportionately overrepresented in positions of power across every sector of society because they are inherently more capable? Or is it due to deeply embedded systemic preferences—what the book calls “straight white American male preference,” or SWAMP?

As our democracy and civil rights face mounting threats—and are actively being dismantled before our eyes under the current administration—do we still care about equality? And if we do, what are we going to do about it?

Join us for the book launch!

It has been an honor—and joy—to be on this journey with Steve, as well as with the incredible team that has formed over the years. We have also been fortunate to have the dedication of an extended community, including readers like you, who have helped support this work over the years. Together, under the leadership of Steve and his late wife Susan, we have arguably contributed successfully to shifting the political narrative away from the status quo and into the lens of the New American Majority.

This work matters now more than ever. I’m excited for this new book to come out. If Steve’s work has helped you better understand what’s happening in our country—if it has given you language, perspective, or even a measure of hope—please consider joining us. Sign up to be part of the launch. Spread the word about the book. 

It will take all of us to continue pushing for change and insisting that the voices and issues of the New American Majority matter to save our democracy from the current forces leading it, and to build the kind of country we want together.

In many ways, this country is not the same one we were living in when this journey began, when Steve and I first met, 12 years ago. But our belief and hope, that collectively we can make a difference, that we can overcome, and that all of our voices matter, endures. 

Accountability Over Icons: Why the Farmworkers' Movement is Bigger Than César Chávez

By Aimee Allison

Labor movement leader Dolores Huerta, at age 96, and other victims broke decades of silence to expose César Chávez as an abuser and pedophile. 

In this short video, Aimee Allison, founder and president of She the People, and former Democracy in Color president and podcast host, makes clear that accountability must prevail over fame and power. She points out that abuse thrives on silence and complicity. She also reminds us that the powerful farmworkers' movement is a collective of thousands, and far bigger than one man. 

We are profoundly grateful for the courage of Dolores Huerta and all the women who used their voices to tell the world the truth.

Video Transcript:

This transcript has been slightly edited for clarity.

Aimee Allison:

By now, you've probably heard the revelation about César Chávez . He's an abuser, a pedophile. Dolores Huerta, now 96 years old, along with a handful of other victims, have set the record straight. The truth is, whether told in farmworker labor movements, or in business, or church, or families, or schools, or in the Epstein files, the truth will set us free.

It doesn't matter how much money or power or fame the person has, even if that fame is based on the very real need and organizing for workers' rights. So let the record reflect who César Chávezz was as a person, as a man. I can guarantee you that over the decades, many people hushed this up or looked the other way because abuse depends on the silence and complicity of everyone. We're not just talking about abuse that happened 50 years ago. We all know that that abuse is happening today. Accountability freezes from the scourge of abuse that poisons so much and harms.

So many girls and women, and boys and men, just everyone. I mean, just think about the Epstein files, how many of those who took part in crimes are still walking around free. The Me Too movement of a few years ago was a stage, but it wasn't the beginning or the end.

There's another wave coming.

I know this could not have been easy for Dolores Huerta, but we can insist, all of us, that the ideals of justice are worth fighting for and tell the truth about people who abuse. And we should insist on the power and the beauty of the movement for farmworkers' rights that fight for the most vulnerable.

It was a movement that was more than César Chávez. It was made up of thousands of men and women. And Dolores Huerta, the woman who put the movement of justice above herself for all this time, I wish her peace. I want to express gratitude. I want to thank her for her witness, because after a lifetime of fighting for other people's freedom and dignity and voice, you have now embraced and grasped a whole other level of freedom.

Why artists need our support now more than ever

By Fola Onifade

Photo by Fola Onifade. Mint Museum Randolph. Charlotte, NC. 2022

It’s officially autumn! The days are getting shorter and cooler (depending on where you live), and this season always reminds me that endings have their place in the natural order of things.

As a country—and world—we’re living through several concurrent endings. In the U.S., we’re witnessing authoritarians grasp at their final vestiges of power to stave off the growing influence of those who have been historically sidelined and marginalized. It’s hard to watch. It’s heavy and frightening to live through.

Look to the artists
At a time like this, it might seem frivolous or shallow to look to the artists, the makers, and the keepers of culture—but the messages and substance of their work are exactly what authoritarians fear. Art can be a refuge for hope and joy when the world is bleak. And in the face of authoritarianism, art becomes dangerous: an avenue to speak truth to power, to express what cannot be said, and to challenge destructive narratives.

The city of Charlotte, for example, has been in headlines recently following the murder of a Ukrainian woman, Iryna Zarutska, on our public transit system. The nation's vice president was in North Carolina on Wednesday to discuss “public safety.” Later this week, the House Judiciary Committee will arrive in Charlotte for a hearing on violent crime. Surely, Zarutska’s horrific death deserves care, attention, and restorative justice, but conservatives have seized upon this tragedy to stoke more fear and hate during an already sensitive, divisive time.

Joining in one another’s traditions
Meanwhile, the international solidarity in our city has received much less coverage. Right now, our annual Charlotte International Arts Festival is taking place in the heart of the city, and lasts for nearly a month. Every year, in the fall, thousands of Charlotteans celebrate the city's vibrant tapestry, the rich cultural heritages of locals, immigrants, and refugees from all across the world who call Charlotte home.

While many law firms, tech companies, media giants, and other corporations continue to capitulate to an authoritarian regime, here, in the South—with its history of resistance against oppression and proving what's possible under the most dire circumstances—we are lifting up our international community, joining in one another’s traditions, and forging the bonds that are a direct threat to xenophobia and nationalism.

Support local arts
This fall, I encourage you to not just support your local arts organizations, whose work will be increasingly crucial as censorship and funding cuts become the norm, but to stay engaged with the diverse communities in your neighborhood. The antidote to these harrowing times will not be found in isolation or retreat, but in solidarity, unity, and strong relationships with the people around us.

Reflections on a Text Received on a Spring Afternoon

By Sharline Chiang

Original artwork by Lisa Hsia

Hi. Was just reading an article in The Guardian about the US gestapo and Chinese immigrants.

Have you thought about carrying with you a notarized copy of your birth certificate and passport page? If you haven’t thought of it please do. The article says they are going to sanctuary cities that used to be safe like SF.

I was sitting at my desk on a cool spring afternoon last week when I received the text. Outside, cherry plum blossoms had all but shed from recent rains but jasmine and wisteria were suddenly everywhere. 

I was in the middle of working or surfing the web trying to avoid reading the news despite its pull like an undertow. Norah Jones sang from the kitchen…come away with me, in the night…

The text arrived unexpectedly like a grenade in a tiny hat with its innocuous Hi. 
The person who sent it loves me. 
The person who sent it is a white woman, a relative of my husband, who could not have known what a text like that can do to someone on a cool spring afternoon at one’s desk, one who is oh so carefully already carrying micro grenades in each cell of her body, especially since November.

One who has my face. 

I know that she sent it with the greatest intent, a care package, caution as love language, the way mothers run into the cold waving a jacket: you’ll catch your death out there!
She was and is so worried for me. 
Yet, I did not, do not, want this care package, this jacket, this tiny grenade. I did not, do not, want this reminder, this reality check—when others, like her, do not need them.

Even though we both have American birth certificates, American passports.

I know I should feel grateful for her concern, her care…and I am. But in that moment, all I felt was shock, disbelief, and anger…fear, shame, and grief—all wrapped in an icy shell of loneliness.

A voice inside: Ha! You thought your citizenship could protect you? Your American-ness?
——

Have you thought about carrying with you a notarized copy of your birth certificate and passport page? 

No. Never. Not in a million years. 

——

Fifty-five years to be exact.
My birth certificate says I was born in New York City 1970—Spanish Harlem.
My parents love telling the story about how I used to dance in the hot summer streets as a baby, in my diaper, shaking my booty to the blasting boomboxes of our Black and Latino neighbors who would point and say, look at that little Chinese baby dance!

Later my parents opened a dry cleaning store in Queens. I can still see my dad pressing slacks, feel the steam, smell the sharp scent of solvents.

——

A grenade is made of three parts, a body, filler, and fuze.
1. The body is designed to burst into fragments when detonated, strewing fragments, shockwaves or fire.
2. The filler is the material inside the grenade body that produces the desired effect (e.g. explosion or smoke).
3. When you pull the pin on a grenade, a timed fuse starts burning down until it reaches the filler, exploding the grenade.
——
All my thoughts exploded at once:

• F@ck that! I'm not carrying no stinkin’ papers!

• Should I carry papers?

• I should definitely carry papers. 

And then:
This is like during Covid when my mother wondered if she should buy a gun to protect herself. Like when my daughter stopped wanting to walk with me in public because she didn’t feel safe being outside without her white father. Like all the times people said to me, to my parents, “Go back to China. Go back to where you came from.”

And finally:
Maybe I can change my face. I can’t change my face. I can’t believe this is happening.

——

 What I texted back:

Thanks for letting me know. Mahmoud Khalil has papers, and it didn’t matter. They will do what they want. Even if you have papers.

But I’ll think about it. 

——

Since Election Day I have been waking up almost every morning and going to bed almost every night with low rumblings, as if all the grenades are whispering. I try to quell them with meditation or by placing my hand over my heart (It supposedly activates the vagus nerve to bring calm. It reminds me of being a kid saying the pledge. The irony is not lost on me.)

My parents are citizens but they are immigrants. Could they be detained and deported? 
I was born here, but could I be detained and deported?
We are only [one week, one month, two months] in. How bad will things get? How will this end? 

——

I used to wonder how 120,000 Japanese Americans could have been incarcerated by our government. I don't wonder anymore. 
——

I remind myself every day that there are millions of people across this country who are far more vulnerable than I am right now, targeted by this regime, whose safety and lives are at real immediate risk: undocumented immigrants, non-citizens, trans people, queer people, girls and women without access to safe abortions. The list goes on.

I meditate and try to picture them all, especially the children and young people. I pray to Guanyin to ease their suffering and protect them. 

I want to do more. 

——

My childhood best friend, who is white, asked me last week: “What do you need?”

I thought about this question, about what would help me right now. I realized that her reaching out made me feel less alone and that I could and should ask the same question to others, especially those who are part of targeted communities. Something like:

I know these are difficult times. How you’re experiencing this moment is different from how I’m experiencing it. This feels awkward, and vulnerable, and I'm worried that I'm going to get this wrong, but I want to let you know that I care about you, which is why I want to ask: how can I best support you right now?
——
Recently my husband, thinking out loud, said: “Maybe we shouldn't travel this year.”

I thought about this, then said, “But traveling brings us joy, and for now, our family can still travel. If we pre-emptively decide to stop doing things that bring us joy, then they really win.”
——

Two days ago I celebrated my birthday by gathering a group of friends to eat, drink, and sing (karaoke!) together. Our small Berkeley living room was filled with people across race, age, and gender, overbrimming with joy. We were a chorus of voices: brown, white, Black, yellow, queer, trans, cis, immigrant, immigrant adjacent, children of refugees, first gen, second gen, third. So much laughter I couldn’t hear the whispers anymore.

“We need to do more of this,” we said to one another. "This is how we will get through."

——

Come away with me, in the night

Come away with me
And I will write you a song

Come away with me, on a bus
Come away where they can't tempt us
With their lies

——

With each laugh, each song, each bite of food, each hug, every micro grenade was replaced that night with jasmine, wisteria, and sunshine. I wish this for everyone, if only for a moment. But I know this may not be possible. I know I’m among the lucky ones.
For now.

Four orgs you can support now to make an impact before Election Day

By Steve Phillips

The majority of people in this country oppose Trump and his hateful white nationalist politics, but the key to victory will be making sure that that population majority becomes a voting majority, especially in battleground states. 

Whether you’re frantically refreshing your favorite publication's homepage for updates or avoiding the news altogether, there are still ways you can stay involved and make an impact in these final days. We recommend supporting groups on the ground who are doing the work to drive voter turnout through Election Day in swing states. 

Here are some ways you can focus your time, money, and energy in the homestretch. 

Donate to:

Carolina Federation

The Carolina Federation is a statewide organization driving voter turnout in North Carolina. North Carolina is in play this year with both Republicans and Democrats spending a lot of time in the state. (President Obama will be rallying in Charlotte, NC on Friday, a state he won by just under 14,000 votes in 2008.) Maximizing voter turnout in the state and flipping it blue is within reach. Donate here.

Progress Georgia

Progress Georgia is run by Stacey Abrams's former chief of staff, Ashley Robinson. It serves as a digital and communications hub for the progressive movement in Georgia and is responsible for sending pro-Harris, pro-Democrat mailers to voters. We know the crucial role Georgia played in the 2020 election and this year will be no different. Donate here.

Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA)

Forged in the crucible of the anti-immigrant attacks of 2010 in Arizona, LUCHA has grown to become a powerhouse in mobilizing Latino voters. In 2020, Biden’s victory in Arizona not only helped Democrats win, but also prevented Trump’s plan to call the election early. This year, LUCHA is continuing their on–the-ground effort to drive voter turnout for races up and down the ballot, including in Ruben Gallego’s key Senate race to replace Kyrsten Sinema. Donate here.

If you’re looking for ways to volunteer your time, there are many ways you can do that including canvassing. But if you’d like to direct your energy efficiently, we recommend signing up to phonebank with organizations directly contacting voters in key states. 

Reproductive Freedom for All

Reproductive Freedom for All, formerly known as NARAL Pro-Choice America, has been helping lead the fight for abortion rights, access to birth control, parental leave policies, and pregnancy protections. They have the infrastructure to engage and direct widespread volunteer energy and interest, and throughout this election, volunteers have been sending texts and making calls to voters in the states where this election hinges. Find a place to volunteer here.

We’re almost there, folks. There’s still plenty of time to get involved and stay involved, because winning this election is going to take all of us. If we get the vote out, we will win. So let's do everything we can in these last days.

Flippable District in the Middle of NY State

By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

Syracuse, NY

This week we take a look at the NY-22, where Democrat and Working Families Party nominee John Mannion is challenging incumbent Republican Brandon Williams for the chance to represent this highly competitive district nestled in the Mohawk Valley and central New York State. The district is home to several universities, including Syracuse, Hamilton, Colgate, and Utica.

Slightly more democratic leaning

The NY-22 is one of the nation’s congressional districts with geographic boundaries that have changed since the 2022 election. As a result of its boundary change, the district is slightly more Democratic leaning. The Republican’s ability to wrest control over the House in 2022 is often attributed to the party’s victory that year in this district. The district consists mainly of urban areas but it does contain a significant share of rural areas (42.5%).

one of dems’ best shots

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is prioritizing fundraising for the NY-22 based on its assessment that this is one of best shots Dems have at flipping seats from Red to Blue. The Cook Political Report considers this a “Lean Democratic” seat even though its PVI is D+1. However, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill each categorize it as a toss-up district. It has a score of D+4 in our New Majority Index (NMI). 

The NY-22 has a median household income of $68,941, making it among the less wealthy districts within the state. Its population is overwhelmingly white (76%), with African Americans comprising the next largest ethnorace group (9%), followed by Latinos (5.6%).

razor-thin margins

Republicans won the district’s past two congressional elections with razor-thin margins. In 2020, Republican Claudia Tenney bested Democratic nominee and incumbent Anthony Brindisi by just 109 votes. In 2022, Republican Brandon Williams’ victory maintained the GOP’s hold on the district. Williams’ margin of victory was larger (2,631 votes) than Tenney’s but not enough to move the seat out of the toss-up category.

veteran school teacher vs. former military officer

State Senator John Mannion, 56, is the Democratic nominee in this year’s contest and he proudly calls the NY-22 region home to his family for the past century. A product of the New York State University system and a public school teacher of almost 30 years, Mannion’s policy agenda focuses on bringing more high-paying jobs to the district, cutting taxes on the middle class, and improving public safety and transportation for the district’s residents. As a former union representative and president, he’s been an advocate for working families and, as such, is endorsed by the NY State teachers’ union and the AFL-CIO New York chapter. 

Texan Brandon Williams “landed in Central New York in 2010,” according to his congress member website. A former military officer, upon his discharge he turned his focus to business management and finance. Most recently he has worked as an entrepreneur in the software sector. He’s been criticized by his opponent for his lack of visibility in the district and for not conducting many media interviews.. Local media sources expect Williams to attack Mannion on his record at the state capitol and his overall association with Albany.

fundraising

The GOP’s main advantage is fundraising. Williams has raised over $2.7M as of the end of June, whereas Mannion has raised less than half of that, $1.2M. The ratio is even worse when it comes to cash on hand. Williams had over $1.3M on June 30, 2024 compared to the mere $340K in Mannion’s coffers. 

Rematch in the Catskills

By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

Grab your paddle and hop in a canoe because this week we’re featuring some of the most beautiful parts of New York State at this time of the year — the Catskills, Hudson Valley, and Finger Lakes regions that are home to some of the best paddling east of the Mississippi River. Democrat Josh Riley is challenging the freshman Republican incumbent, Marc Molinaro, in a rematch of 2022 to represent the people who call this mainly rural part of the Empire State home.

Highly competitive seat — NY-19

The NY-19 is one of 18 congressional districts that would have voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election had they existed in their current configuration while being won or held by a Republican in 2022. This is considered a highly competitive seat and the Cook Political Report has the race categorized as a Republican Toss Up while we give it a score of D+1 on the New Majority Index. 

The district is overwhelmingly white, with only 10% of its citizen adults being people of color. The socioeconomic status of the district is markedly lower than that of NY-01, which we featured earlier this month. The median income of NY-19 is only $67,645 compared to NY-01’s $126,171. 

Riley vs Molinaro

Born and raised in a working-class family that’s lived in Upstate New York for over a century, Josh Riley has spent his career in public service, racking up an impressive list of policy accomplishments aimed at improving the lives of working families. 

Republican Molinaro’s claim to fame is that he was the youngest mayor in the United States at the age of 19 when he was elected mayor of Tivoli, NY in 1995. He’s remained in various public service roles since then as a Republican elected or appointed official. In his brief time in Congress, Molinaro has refrained from taking extremist views, which is not surprising given the partisan bent of the district. He’s been supportive of same sex marriage and was an outspoken critic of George Santos. 

Describing the race as already becoming “bitter,” in May 2024 local media outlet NY1.com wrote: “In recent interviews, Molinaro labeled Riley a ‘fraud,’ while Riley said Molinaro is ‘really good at pointing fingers’ and ‘really bad at solving problems.’ Molinaro joined with fellow Republicans who acquiesced to former President Trump’s command to quash the bipartisan immigration reform bill painstakingly negotiated by some of the most hardline Republicans in office. Riley has done his best to call attention to Molinaro’s decision to choose partisanship over the smart policy solution.”

In the 2022 election, Molinaro won with 49.9% of the vote. The district lines for 2024 will differ slightly from those under which Molinaro prevailed by about 5,000 votes, and will favor Republicans ever so slightly more than the previous map.  

Tight race

A quick glance at the election outcomes and turnout numbers over the past few cycles suggests that this is indeed a very tight race going into November. With almost equal turnout in the midterm cycles of 2018 and 2022, we saw both parties emerge victorious. But it’s noteworthy that in 2018, the Dem managed to achieve a margin of victory of over 15,000 votes despite the third-party candidates pulling a significant share (7,000+) of the votes. The last presidential cycle (2020) saw an even larger share of votes in the column of third-party candidates, but the overall turnout number was almost 70,000 higher than in either the prior or subsequent midterm, and we see that the Democrat prevailed among those additional voters with a decisive margin of victory over the Republican of approximately 38,000 votes.

White Voters Key in NY Race That Includes the Hamptons

By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

East Hampton, NY

The NY-01 encompasses the eastern two-thirds of Long Island and includes places of extreme wealth such as the Hamptons, as well as working-class towns and farming communities. The district is currently represented by freshman Republican Nick LaLota and is considered a competitive district.

The Cook Political Report rates the NY-01 as R+3, and our NMI score is R+1. Cook currently categorizes the seat as “Likely Republican.”

A potential slim .2% marginal difference

In 2016, Trump won the district by 12 percentage points. But in 2020, Trump’s margin of victory was narrowed down to a mere 4 percentage points. In 2022, LaLota defeated Democrat Bridget Fleming in a newly-drawn district by about 10 percentage points.

The NY-01 is one of the 18 districts that would have voted for Biden in the 2020 election had they existed in their current configuration while being won by a Republican in 2022. According to Ballotpedia, Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 49.5% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 49.3%. Given how close this outcome would have been, we can presume that turnout will be determinative in the 2024 election.

Former CNN anchor vs Navy veteran

The infamous former member of Congress George Santos, who was expelled from the House of Representatives last December, announced earlier this year in March that he’d primary LaLota. But that never came to fruition and LaLota advanced to the general without a primary battle. 

Democrat John Avlon — a former CNN anchor who was once editor-in-chief of The Daily Beast as well as Rudy Giuliani's youngest speech writer — is trying to flip the seat back to Blue after winning the Democratic primary earlier this year by a landslide. Upon winning the seat, Avlon said, “[W]e’re liberal patriots and pragmatic problem-solvers. We believe in defending democracy, standing up to extremism, and promoting broad prosperity by rebuilding the middle class.” Avlon is calling for at least six debates on the issues that affect the lives of the district’s residents that will highlight LaLota’s “extreme MAGA approach to politics.”

Despite not living in the district himself, incumbent LaLota, a Navy veteran, has blasted Avlon of Sag Harbor as a “Manhattan elitist.” LaLota hails from Amity, NY, home of the house featured in the classic “Amityville Horror” movie, which is located on Long Island, but outside of the NY-01 geographic boundaries. LaLota claims to have three times as much cash on hand, but seems to overstate the conservative vote advantage in this district, so one should take that assertion with a grain of salt. 

Careful targeting of white voters key

The NY-01 consists mainly of white voters (71.6%), with the next largest ethnorace group being Latinos at 15.5%. Given that almost three out of four votes in the NY-01 will be cast by whites, a focus on turning out voters of color will likely be important but insufficient to achieve victory by the Democrats. Careful targeting within the white voter base will be paramount, as is described in this report issued earlier this year titled “Expanding the White Stripe of Our Multiracial Coalition in 2024.” This report emphasizes the importance of smart messaging within certain white communities and white voting blocs that are winnable.  

In Competitive SoCal Race, API and Latino Vote Key

By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

Black Star Canyon, CA

This week we take a look at a very competitive seat, the CA-40, currently held by Republican Young Kim. In 2018, Kim challenged the incumbent, Democrat Gil Cisneros and lost by a very slim margin. But two years later, she prevailed in a rematch with Cisneros during the 2020 presidential election, with a lead of only 1,000 votes on election night. The district boundaries have since changed with 2020 redistricting, but Congresswoman Kim managed to hold the seat in 2022 despite a strong showing by the Democratic challenger.

Very competitive district

Cook Political Report rates the CA-40 as R+2, and categorizes it as “Likely Republican.” In contrast, our NMI score for the district is “Even,” which indicates that the district matches the average of the national partisan vote share (Democrat vs. Republican) for the 2020 and 2016 cycles. The NMI score suggests that this is a very competitive district, in keeping with the actual vote outcomes over the past three cycles. Accordingly, it is one of the 18 districts that would have voted for Joe Biden in 2020 had the district existed in its current configuration while also being won by a Republican—Young Kim—in that 2020 congressional race.

Landlocked area south of LA

The CA-40 is a landlocked area located just south of Los Angeles. It takes up the majority of northern and eastern Orange County, and parts of southwestern San Bernardino and western Riverside Counties. It includes the cities of Orange, Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, and Laguna Hills as well as a large tract of sparsely populated inland desert. To its west (not part of CA-40) lie the well-known beach cities of Huntington Beach and Laguna Niguel as well as Irvine.

The median household income is $124,144 and the district is just under half white (48.5%). Latinos (25.2%) and APIs (19%) comprise most of the other half. Republicans hold at least a 4 percentage point advantage in voter registration.

Young Kim, last of Congress moderates

Young Kim, 61, is a former businessperson who was born in South Korea and attended high school in Hawaii. She’s considered one of the few remaining moderates in Congress and has managed to not make herself a target for challengers from either the Right or Left. In 2022, she had a poor showing in the primary, coming in behind Democrat Pakistani American physician Asif Mahmood. But by November, she’d solidified her supporters and won 56.8% of the vote. Mahmood focused much of his campaign messaging on the threat to women’s health and choice, which will once again be a key issue nationally in the 2024 election. 

Joe Kerr, veteran firefighter, labor leader

This Election Day, Kim will face Democrat Joe Kerr, a veteran firefighter of 34 years as well as a statewide labor leader in California. According to his campaign website, Kerr was elected as the first president of the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association, a position he held for 17 years. He is the former vice president of the California Professional Firefighters, and a former vice president of the Orange County Central Labor Council (AFL-CIO). Through his leadership in labor, he’s pushed for and won significant policy changes that benefit working people, address climate change, and public safety in California. 

API and Latino voter turnout must surge for Dems

To win this November, Kerr is going to have to light a fire under the district’s API and Latino voters and drive them to the ballot box. He has the benefit of running in a presidential election cycle, which will boost turnout overall. However, he needs Latino and API turnout to surge at a higher rate than their white counterparts in order to get within striking distance of Kim.

For example, in 2020 when the then-incumbent, Gil Cisneros, came within about 4,000 votes of Kim, turnout among API voters lagged behind white turnout by 9 percentage points (84% white and 75% API) and Latino turnout lagged behind white turnout (73%) by 11 percentage points. Contrast these turnout differences with the 2022 election in which Mahmood challenged Kim. In that cycle, API turnout (47%) lagged behind that of whites (65%) by 18 percentage points. Latino turnout (42%) lagged behind whites by 23 percentage points. In other words, the difference in turnout between Latinos and whites and APIs and whites doubled.

Kerr needs to not only reverse the drop in participation by Latinos and APIs during the midterm cycle, he must also raise their base level of participation in the traditionally higher turnout presidential cycle.