White Voters Key in NY Race That Includes the Hamptons
By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega
East Hampton, NY
The NY-01 encompasses the eastern two-thirds of Long Island and includes places of extreme wealth such as the Hamptons, as well as working-class towns and farming communities. The district is currently represented by freshman Republican Nick LaLota and is considered a competitive district.
The Cook Political Report rates the NY-01 as R+3, and our NMI score is R+1. Cook currently categorizes the seat as “Likely Republican.”
A potential slim .2% marginal difference
In 2016, Trump won the district by 12 percentage points. But in 2020, Trump’s margin of victory was narrowed down to a mere 4 percentage points. In 2022, LaLota defeated Democrat Bridget Fleming in a newly-drawn district by about 10 percentage points.
The NY-01 is one of the 18 districts that would have voted for Biden in the 2020 election had they existed in their current configuration while being won by a Republican in 2022. According to Ballotpedia, Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 49.5% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 49.3%. Given how close this outcome would have been, we can presume that turnout will be determinative in the 2024 election.
Former CNN anchor vs Navy veteran
The infamous former member of Congress George Santos, who was expelled from the House of Representatives last December, announced earlier this year in March that he’d primary LaLota. But that never came to fruition and LaLota advanced to the general without a primary battle.
Democrat John Avlon — a former CNN anchor who was once editor-in-chief of The Daily Beast as well as Rudy Giuliani's youngest speech writer — is trying to flip the seat back to Blue after winning the Democratic primary earlier this year by a landslide. Upon winning the seat, Avlon said, “[W]e’re liberal patriots and pragmatic problem-solvers. We believe in defending democracy, standing up to extremism, and promoting broad prosperity by rebuilding the middle class.” Avlon is calling for at least six debates on the issues that affect the lives of the district’s residents that will highlight LaLota’s “extreme MAGA approach to politics.”
Despite not living in the district himself, incumbent LaLota, a Navy veteran, has blasted Avlon of Sag Harbor as a “Manhattan elitist.” LaLota hails from Amity, NY, home of the house featured in the classic “Amityville Horror” movie, which is located on Long Island, but outside of the NY-01 geographic boundaries. LaLota claims to have three times as much cash on hand, but seems to overstate the conservative vote advantage in this district, so one should take that assertion with a grain of salt.
Careful targeting of white voters key
The NY-01 consists mainly of white voters (71.6%), with the next largest ethnorace group being Latinos at 15.5%. Given that almost three out of four votes in the NY-01 will be cast by whites, a focus on turning out voters of color will likely be important but insufficient to achieve victory by the Democrats. Careful targeting within the white voter base will be paramount, as is described in this report issued earlier this year titled “Expanding the White Stripe of Our Multiracial Coalition in 2024.” This report emphasizes the importance of smart messaging within certain white communities and white voting blocs that are winnable.