Flippable District in the Middle of NY State

By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

Syracuse, NY

This week we take a look at the NY-22, where Democrat and Working Families Party nominee John Mannion is challenging incumbent Republican Brandon Williams for the chance to represent this highly competitive district nestled in the Mohawk Valley and central New York State. The district is home to several universities, including Syracuse, Hamilton, Colgate, and Utica.

Slightly more democratic leaning

The NY-22 is one of the nation’s congressional districts with geographic boundaries that have changed since the 2022 election. As a result of its boundary change, the district is slightly more Democratic leaning. The Republican’s ability to wrest control over the House in 2022 is often attributed to the party’s victory that year in this district. The district consists mainly of urban areas but it does contain a significant share of rural areas (42.5%).

one of dems’ best shots

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is prioritizing fundraising for the NY-22 based on its assessment that this is one of best shots Dems have at flipping seats from Red to Blue. The Cook Political Report considers this a “Lean Democratic” seat even though its PVI is D+1. However, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill each categorize it as a toss-up district. It has a score of D+4 in our New Majority Index (NMI). 

The NY-22 has a median household income of $68,941, making it among the less wealthy districts within the state. Its population is overwhelmingly white (76%), with African Americans comprising the next largest ethnorace group (9%), followed by Latinos (5.6%).

razor-thin margins

Republicans won the district’s past two congressional elections with razor-thin margins. In 2020, Republican Claudia Tenney bested Democratic nominee and incumbent Anthony Brindisi by just 109 votes. In 2022, Republican Brandon Williams’ victory maintained the GOP’s hold on the district. Williams’ margin of victory was larger (2,631 votes) than Tenney’s but not enough to move the seat out of the toss-up category.

veteran school teacher vs. former military officer

State Senator John Mannion, 56, is the Democratic nominee in this year’s contest and he proudly calls the NY-22 region home to his family for the past century. A product of the New York State University system and a public school teacher of almost 30 years, Mannion’s policy agenda focuses on bringing more high-paying jobs to the district, cutting taxes on the middle class, and improving public safety and transportation for the district’s residents. As a former union representative and president, he’s been an advocate for working families and, as such, is endorsed by the NY State teachers’ union and the AFL-CIO New York chapter. 

Texan Brandon Williams “landed in Central New York in 2010,” according to his congress member website. A former military officer, upon his discharge he turned his focus to business management and finance. Most recently he has worked as an entrepreneur in the software sector. He’s been criticized by his opponent for his lack of visibility in the district and for not conducting many media interviews.. Local media sources expect Williams to attack Mannion on his record at the state capitol and his overall association with Albany.

fundraising

The GOP’s main advantage is fundraising. Williams has raised over $2.7M as of the end of June, whereas Mannion has raised less than half of that, $1.2M. The ratio is even worse when it comes to cash on hand. Williams had over $1.3M on June 30, 2024 compared to the mere $340K in Mannion’s coffers.