By Steve Phillips & Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

Republican fighter jet pilot Mike Garcia is battling for his political life in CA-27, a congressional district where President Biden won easily with a 10.1% margin of victory in 2020. Widely referred to as a rematch with Democrat Christy Smith, this is considered the third-closest competitive House race for 2022. Based on the latest round of redistricting, Biden would have defeated Trump in CA-27 with an over 12 percentage point lead, giving Democrats an even greater chance of taking this seat back in November.

If last week’s featured congressional district CA-22 was a hot potato, this week’s is a ping-pong ball. In 2018, Democrat Katie Hill managed to unseat incumbent Steve Knight (R) by 8 percentage points, but she had to vacate the seat after a revenge-porn scandal forced her to resign that same year. Republican Mike Garcia won the special election to fill the seat in May 2020.

HIGH-LEVEL

In November 2020, Smith lost the general election to Garcia by a mere 333 votes. The subsequent removal of staunchly conservative Simi Valley from CA-27 due to 2020 redistricting will make it much harder for Garcia and the Republicans to keep that seat red.

However, in the nonpartisan primary for CA-27 held on June 7, 2022, Smith won considerably fewer votes (35.4%) than Garcia (49.6%), so Democrats will have to work hard for every vote they get in November.

NMI RATING

Although pundits rate this district as a toss-up, the New Majority Index indicates CA-27 as a solid Democratic district with a rating of D+8. A large share of the eligible voters in CA-27 are voters of color (55%+). There are more than enough Latino voters, who, if mobilized to vote in November, could easily hand Smith the seat.

GROUPS ON THE GROUND

Voter mobilization in CA-27 among voters of color is anchored by established organizations such as CHIRLA Action Fund. The immigrant-led community group has endorsed Christy Smith, citing, among other factors, her efforts to help pass a bond measure that would support under-resourced schools in the district.

The endorsement also notes her collaborations with CHIRLA, SALVA (a Latino community organization focused on education, migration, and health), and the Dolores Huerta Foundation during her tenure in the CA Assembly. Smith is a natural fit to represent the district’s residents and this will make CHIRLA’s work to increase turnout all the more effective.

TOPLINE NUMBERS

As mentioned earlier, Biden won CA-27 by 10.1 percentage points in 2020. Under the newly drawn district lines, the seat leans even more towards Democrats, with an estimated 12-point margin of victory based on Biden’s 2020 performance.

FINANCIALS

PROJECTED VOTES IN 2022

If eligible voters of color were to turn out to vote at the same rates as 2020 white voters in CA-27, Democrats could easily win back this seat.

In 2022, there would be over 18.5k additional voters of color in CA-27 casting ballots if they turned out to vote at the same rate as white CA-27 voters in 2020.
And if those additional POC voters supported the Dem candidate at the same rates as they did in 2020, Dems could see almost 14.5K additional votes for their nominee.
The GOP margin of victory in that House race was only 333 votes in 2020, which is obviously just a tiny fraction of the POC votes that could be cast in CA-27 this November.

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