How to Hold the House: Turning a Red Seat Blue in California’s Central Valley
By Steve Phillips
Photo by Fabian Quintero on Unsplash
Map courtesy of Ballotpedia
In one of the most hotly contested House races in the country, both parties will continue playing hot potato with the CA-22 race in Central Valley, California until Election Day this November. In 2018, Democrat Terrance John “TJ” Cox managed to eke out a slim victory against the incumbent Republican David Valadao. But following negative headlines accusing Cox of owing back wages to employees and unpaid federal income taxes, (for which he was just arrested and charged by the FBI last month), Valadao was able to win that seat back from Cox by just 1 percent of the vote in 2020, despite the fact that the district voted for Biden by 11 points over Trump in that same election. (About 55% of the newly redistricted CA-22’s population, where Valadao is now running to keep his seat, comes from the old CA-21 district which he was elected to in 2020.)
In 2022, Valadao is defending his seat against CA State Assemblyman Rudy Salas, who is widely considered the best person to put that seat back in the D column. Despite being the only Democrat on the ballot in the June primary, Salas only won 45% of the vote. (In CA, all voters and candidates, regardless of party affiliation, participate in the same primary, unlike in other states where each party holds its own primary. The top two vote winners then proceed to the general election.)
However, Valadao also performed worse than he had hoped in the primary. He was one of three Republicans on the June ballot and despite being an incumbent, he only garnered 25% of the overall vote. Valadao’s lackluster performance in the primary was likely due to the fact that he has the distinction of being one of only 10 Republican House members to vote in favor of impeaching then-President Trump. This will very likely continue to cost him crucial support from the Republican base as he battles to hold this seat.
Although most pundits rate CA-22 as a toss-up district, the New Majority Index, which I created with the help of some talented data scientists, indicates that the district should be considered a solid Democratic district with a rating of D+15. A large share of the eligible voters in CA-22 are voters of color (70%+), primarily Mexican American low-propensity voters (59%). (There are more than enough of these Latino voters that if they were mobilized to vote in November, Salas could easily win the seat.
Groups on the Ground
Voter mobilization in CA-22 among voters of color is anchored by Communities for a New California (CNC), a group that has been on the ground in the Central Valley for over 10 years. With a focus on giving voice to working families in marginalized communities, CNC has ambitious goals to increase voter registration and turnout in this district.
Topline Numbers
As mentioned earlier, Biden won CA-22 by 11 percentage points in 2020. Under the newly drawn district lines, the seat leans even more toward Democrats, with an estimated 13-point margin of victory for Democrats.
FINANCIALS
Projected Votes in 2022
If eligible voters of color were to turn out to vote at the same rates as white voters in CA-22 did in 2020, Democrats could easily win back this seat.
In 2022, there would be over 197.5K voters of color in CA-22 if they turned out to vote at the same rate as white CA-22 voters did in 2020.
In 2022, there would be over 149K votes cast for Democrats by voters of color if eligible people of color turned out at the same rates as their white counterparts did in 2020, which is over 26K more than in 2020 .
The GOP margin of victory in that House race was only 1,522 votes in 2020. The 2018 race was also extremely close with only 862 votes more for the Democrat, TJ Cox.
