How to Hold the House: The Fight for the Right to Choose in Orange County, CA

 

By Steve Phillips & Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

 
 

Map courtesy of Ballotpedia

The right to choose is front and center in CA-40 this cycle. Physician Asif Mahmood (D) cleared the field before the 2022 primary, demonstrating both his fundraising prowess and his ability to harness the energy of the district’s pro-choice voters by trouncing the incumbent Congresswoman Young Kim by just over 6 percentage points.

HIGH-LEVEL

While Kim had to fend off two other Republicans to earn her spot on the November ballot, Mahmood’s impressive feat nonetheless positioned him well for the upcoming general election, where an amendment to the California Constitution is on the ballot. Prop 1 or the Consitutional Right to Reproductive Freedom would codify the fundamental right to choose or refuse contraception and abortion, and will spur those most animated by the issue to turn out.

Dr. Mahmood’s commitment to maintaining access to the full panoply of health care options, including abortion, not only resonates with voters, it appears to be motivating them. A poll conducted in early September shows that 69% of California likely voters would vote “yes” in support of maintaining current abortion and contraception rights. Participation of that solid majority in favor of the amendment will be necessary in order for Mahmood to win in this historically red part of California. 

NMI RATING

CA-40 is generally considered by many to be Likely Republican, and the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+2. But our New Majority Index indicates that the district should be considered an evenly split district with a rating of EVEN. 

A large share of the eligible voters in CA-40 are voters of color (39%+), and a sizable portion of those voters are Asian American (17%). In 2020, 76% of AAPI voters in California voted for Biden, per exit poll results. Given how energized AAPI voters throughout the state are in defending a woman’s right to choose, their strong presence offers a distinct advantage to Mahmood’s campaign. 

Additionally, Democrats will certainly use Kim’s vote against codifying the right to abortion and contraception against her. Focused and extensive turnout efforts among the AAPI population and Latinos could put this district back in the Democrats’ hands. 

GROUPS ON THE GROUND

Voter mobilization in CA-40 among voters of color is anchored by Orange County Action (OC Action), a group with deep roots in Southern California. OC Action was founded in 2017 to build an “AAPI-Latinx-Labor-Environmental Justice Alliance” and to develop progressive political power. 

The group traditionally endorses progressive candidates in Orange County ranging from congressional candidates to school board positions, and mayoral candidates to city council members. OC Action seeks to lift voices from leaders who uphold the organization’s core values of “true democracy, just transition/recovery, housing as a human right, transformation of public education, immigrant justice, and healthy and thriving lives”, all of which are proven methods for mobilizing POC voters.

TOPLINE NUMBERS

President Biden won the voters in the predecessor district to CA-40 (CA-39) by 10 percentage points in 2020. Under the newly drawn district lines, the seat leans very slightly towards Democrats, with an estimated 1.9 percentage-point margin of victory (favoring Democrats) based on Biden’s 2020 performance among the voters in the newly drawn district. Basically, the district is split when it comes to the electorate, which means that turnout will be everything this November. 

FINANCIALS

 

PROJECTED VOTES IN 2022

If eligible voters of color were to turn out to vote at the same rates as 2020 white voters in CA-40, Democrats could win back this seat.

  • In 2022, there would be over 11,599 additional voters of color in CA-40 casting ballots if they turned out to vote at the same rate as white CA-40 voters in 2020.

  • If those additional voters of color supported the Dem candidate at the same rates as they did in 2020, Dems could see almost 8,783 additional votes for their nominee.

  • The GOP margin of victory in the 2020 House race that included much of the newly drawn district was only4,109 votes in 2020, which is less than half of the potential voters of color who could turnout in the 2022 general election.

 
 
Steve Phillips