This Southern California Democrat Can Flip His District With Two Key Strategies
By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega
Incumbent Ken Calvert (R) and Will Rollins (D)
In 2022, we identified the CA-41 in Riverside County in Southern California as a flippable district in the 2022 midterm election, and continued to do so in the 2024 rematch between incumbent Republican Ken Calvert and the Dem challenger, Will Rollins, despite Rollins’ 2022 loss by over 11,000 votes (4.6 percentage points) out of over 239,000 votes cast.
The underlying fundamentals of this district continue to indicate that this is a district that is well within the reach of Democrats. But, as the adage goes, you can’t keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different outcome. That’s especially true in the electoral context. So, how can Rollins and his supporters change things up to win this time around come November?
Why Is the CA-41 Flippable in 2024?
The CA-41 is considered a flippable district since the majority of its electorate supports Democratic candidates, even though this support hasn’t always translated to victory at the ballot box for Dems. Voter registration has increased with redistricting. Before the 2020 redrawing of district lines, Republicans had a voter registration advantage of 264. Now, that has flipped and Democrats have a voter registration advantage of 3,183. It is also widely considered one of the most competitive districts in the nation based on its past voting patterns that favored Republicans.
CA-41 was redrawn after the 2020 Census to include the city of Palm Springs, widely considered “The gayest City in America.” It was the first city in the nation to elect an entirely LGBTQ+ city council, ranks third in the nation with the most same-sex couples, which solidified its standing as not just a cultural bastion of gay-friendly policies, but an electoral one. Palm Springs voters prefer a Democrat over Republican candidate. But just as importantly for this race, they overwhelmingly oppose openly anti-gay Republicans like Calvert.
Ken Calvert has built a reputation as a steadfast opponent of equality for members of the LGBTQ+ community. His challenger, Will Rollins, is a young, openly gay man who served as a federal prosecutor whose caseload focused on counterterrorism and counterintelligence, including some of the insurrectionists who attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6th. He’s challenging Calvert, a 32-year incumbent who has supported some of the most extreme positions of his party by joining the lawsuit to overturn Roe and voted for a national abortion ban with no exceptions.
Historically, heavily LGBTQ+ Palm Springs voters have been highly engaged in the electoral process, as evidenced by their above average rates of voter turnout (54% vs. 34% in the rest of CA-41). However, this segment of the district cannot elect someone to Congress on their own. The good news is that a significant share of eligible voters in the CA-41 are voters of color (44.2%) and are registered as Democrats. These voters, combined with the politically active LGBTW+ residents of Palm Springs comprise the majority of eligible voters in the district.
CA-41 REGISTERED TO VOTE, BY RACE
Why Didn’t Rollins Win in 2022?
To win in 2024, Rollins will need a clear understanding of what went wrong in 2022. A brief analysis of the 2022 election results in the CA-41 reveals that two key constituencies, voters of color and young white voters, who tend to vote more progressive, did not turnout at the rates necessary to ensure that Rollins would prevail.
Rollins Must Engage Voters of Color
We’ve written extensively about the high correlation between race and partisanship, with voters of color being significantly more likely than white voters to support Democratic candidates, and this district is no exception. But all the support imaginable is never enough if those supportive eligible voters of color do not show up and cast ballots. By “punching below their weight” in 2022, voters of color in the CA-41 couldn’t push Rollins over the top.
CA-41 2022 BALLOTS CAST, BY RACE
People of color comprised 42% of those registered to vote in CA-41, while white voters comprised 58%, making this district one with a high share of POCs in its electorate, which bodes well for Democrats. *Native Americans comprise of only 264 people registered to vote in the district.
Despite being 42% of the registered in CA-41, in 2022, ballots cast by POCs comprised a mere 29.9% of the total cast. In contrast, votes cast by whites comprised just over 70% of all ballots. This disproportionality in voter participation had significant repercussions for Rollins in 2022, and he’ll need to mitigate this in order to win in 2024.
The difference in turnout rates for each ethnorace group is detailed below. Despite being a large share of the eligible and registered voters in 2022, POCs were much less likely than whites to participate in the election by casting ballots. This is best understood by seeing the wide range of turnout rates for each of the race groups in the CA-41. Whites turned out at the robust rate of 61%, compared to the next largest ethnorace group, Latinos, who only turned out at a rate of 34%.
CA-41, 2022 TURNOUT (percent that voted), BY RACE
White Voters Under 45 Need to be Engaged and Mobilized by Rollins
Like Latino voters, younger white voters are more likely to support Rollins over Calvert. But, like Latinos, these young white voters also punched below their weight within CA-41 in the 2022 midterm election. Whereas older whites voted at a rate of 72% among those registered, the youngest voters (those under age 30) voted at a rate that was less than half of that (31%). The white voters ages 30-44 performed slightly better at 44%, but they still had nowhere near the turnout rates of their older counterparts.
The Bottom Line
In order for Rollins to send Calvert packing with his fellow retro dinosaurs, he will have to lean into voter outreach strategies that maximize voter participation among people of color and white voters under the age of 45. These eligible voters who support Democrats live in the district and deserve representation in Congress. But Rollins will need a smart and concerted effort to identify, educate, and mobilize them if he wants to achieve a different outcome in November, 2024.