Latino Turnout Will Make or Break the House Rematch in San Joaquin Valley
By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega
Incumbent David Valadao (R) and Rudy Salas (D)
This week we’re looking at another California rematch: in CA-22. Democrat Rudy Salas is back for another shot at this House seat held by incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao in this highly competitive district, one with a long history of bouncing back and forth between the two parties. Redistricting has changed the regions included in this district, which is located in the San Joaquin Valley, yet it remains a toss-up.
In 2022, we listed CA-22 as one of the most flippable districts in the country, and we are once again including it for the 2024 cycle.
Currently, this district, alongside New York's 4th, is the most Democratic-leaning congressional district represented by a Republican.
History of CA-22 Bouncing Between the Parties
Recent Electoral History of CA-22 (votes in thousands)
Incumbent Valadao currently occupies a seat that has experienced slight changes to its boundaries with redistricting. However, the seat has been and remains a hotly contested one, with congressional Republicans managing to win despite the district’s diverse demographic makeup (it’s majority Latino). Still, it’s important to note that those victories were by the slimmest of margins.
The Choice: Valadao vs Salas
2024 will bring a rematch between Salas and Valadao. Salas is a five-term member of the California State Assembly. Born and raised in the agricultural center of California, where he labored in the fields alongside his father, Salas then worked his way into UCLA where he graduated. He later returned home and became the first Latino councilmember in his hometown in over a century.
Valadao has a very different but familiar life story. As a young man, he inherited a share of the lucrative dairy farm established by his father. Under Valadao’s leadership, the bank seized the dairy farm after they defaulted on over $9 million in loans and failed to pay a supplier. He eventually agreed to pay over $325,000 to his former employees who took legal action because they believed they were denied minimum wage and overtime pay as well as legally required breaks.
CA-22 REGISTERED TO VOTE, BY RACE
Why Dems Can Win in CA-22
CA-22 has one of the highest concentrations of eligible POC voters (71%) in the country. Given the high predisposition of POC voters to support Democrats, CA-22 should be an easy win for Dem candidates. But, alas, the vote outcomes in this district fail to reflect this reality due to the relatively low turnout rates among voters of color compared to that of white voters. In 2020, white voters turned out at a rate that was 13 points higher than their POC counterparts.
Valadao doesn’t fit the district
In any redistricting conversation, CA-22 would easily fit the definition of a majority-minority district—a district designed to ensure that its “minority” community has a legitimate chance to elect the candidate of their choice. As a conservative white politician (Valdao’s parents are immigrants from Portugal) who consistently votes against the interest of the overwhelmingly Latino residents, Valdao is out of step with his constituents.
What Salas Needs to Do Differently in 2024: Turnout Latinos and other POC
To win in November, Salas will need to motivate Latinos, who make up the largest share of registered and eligible voters in the district, to choose the ballot box over the couch. In 2022, the turnout rate among Latinos was almost half of that by white voters in CA-22, with just 27 out of 100 registered Latinos casting a ballot compared to 51 whites. Even the district’s African American voters, who nationwide have relatively high turnout rates, only voted in CA-22 at a rate of 31% among registered voters in 2022.
CA-22 2022 BALLOTS CAST, BY RACE
Given that Latinos comprised half of the ballots cast in 2022 (50%), Salas needs to shore up support among the Dem-friendly Latinos, in addition to employing a strong GOTV program among this large constituency. The same is true among African American voters who cast over 4,000 ballots in 2022, which was more than Valadao’s margin of victory. *Native Americans comprise of only 291 people registered to vote in the district.