Top 16 Most Flippable House Seats for Democrats in 2024
Sweet Sixteen for 2024
Dems only need a net gain of four seats
By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega
Republicans have made it abundantly clear that they cannot be entrusted to control the U.S. House of Representatives. Whether it’s dragging their feet to fund the most critical functions of our military and social safety nets, failing to ensure that we comply with international pacts, or refusing to respond to unanticipated crises like the tragic destruction of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, they have proven they need to give up the reins. The GOP currently holds the thinnest of margins in the House—218 seats out of the total 435 seats—yet they are still able to control which issues House members will take up and which will remain unaddressed.
Thin Republican margin
Currently, the Republican margin is so thin that, due to multiple vacancies, Republicans can only afford to have one of their members vote with the Democrats without losing control of vote outcomes.
“This November, Democrats have a solid chance to reset the balance of power in the House in their favor. ”
This November, Democrats have a solid chance to reset the balance of power in the House in their favor. To do so, Democrats will need a net gain of four seats, assuming that each of the currently vacant seats will be filled by a member from the same party as the person who vacated it.
We’ve identified 16 congressional districts (CDs) currently held by Republicans that should be winnable by a Democratic candidate this fall.
Considering racial demographics
Our Sweet Sixteen list contains our top picks among the approximately 75 CDs that are considered by the major Democratic voices as “in play” for 2024. We chose these 16 CDs based on the factors listed above such as racial demographics, historic support for Dems, turnout differentials by race, and the past level of investment in Dem voters in that district (as measured by recent turnout rates), among others.
We gave preference to those CDs located within key 2024 states such as Arizona (2), California (7), Texas (1), and New York (5) largely because of the higher potential for increasing election salience among potential voters when multiple districts are clustered within a specific state (that is, operatives and activists can create more buzz among voters when they focus their efforts within one state or geographic area instead of taking a scattershot approach nationally). We also gave preference to those CDs where external factors such as legal challenges have created the conditions for easy Democratic victory in 2024, namely in the AL-02 in Alabama: this newly created CD is heavily African American and therefore considered a safe Democratic seat. Its voting-age population is 47.6% Black; 45% white.
Rationale for Sweet Sixteen
Our Sweet Sixteen list consists of CDs where:
Biden won the majority of votes in 2020 in those districts (with two exceptions).
Rationale: Support for Biden over Trump indicates that potential voters in this CD are open to Democratic candidates and their policy positions.
The share of POC voters is over 50% (this is the case in five CDs), or over 25% (this applies to the remaining 11 CDs).
Rationale: The high share of POC voters in these CDs is highly correlated with stronger support for Dems among the electorate, especially those who aren’t likely to vote without special efforts by campaigns and civic engagement advocates.
POC voters participated in the 2020 election at rates that were at least 15 points lower than that of white voters (applies to six CDs)
Rationale: Where POC voters “punch below their weight” by not turning out at the same rates as white voters, Republicans benefit. For POC voters to reach turnout parity with Republicans, Democrats must actively invest in effective turnout programs among the POC and among the pro-Democrat white electorate.
Other indexes undercount
By the way, organizations that put out similar indexes (but that only consider past votes and don’t take into account racial and ethnic demographics), such as the Cook Political Report’s PVI, have rated seven of these Sweet Sixteen districts as Lean Democratic, one as a true Toss-Up, and eight as Lean Republican. The algorithm of other indexes undercounts the partisan leaning of those voters who did not participate in the two most recent presidential elections; those voters tend to be voters of color.
The New Majority Index: A better index
The New Majority Index (NMI), created by Steve Phillips, founder of Democracy in Color, takes into account the racial and ethnic backgrounds of all potential voters in a CD, regardless of whether they’ve voted regularly in the past. NMI takes into account the voter turnout rates of each race group in the district, and past vote outcomes.
The NMI categorizes eight of the Sweet Sixteen as Democratic seats, four as Toss Ups, and three as Lean Republican. The full list of districts can be viewed on the NMI site here.
Path to win back control for Dems
Smart and early investments in the Democratic nominees and the civic engagement infrastructure in these 16 CDs is the path for Dems to win back control of the House this year. Under the leadership of Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, the House could work effectively with the Senate and the White House to restore a functioning federal government that serves everyone in this country.