CA-03 Congressional District Poised to Flip from Red to Blue
By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega
Map courtesy of Ballotpedia
The CA-03 congressional district is poised to flip from Red to Blue in 2024. Drawn as a white-majority district by the California Redistricting Commission in 2022, it is considered one of only three competitive toss-up districts in the state by the Commission. Running along the CA-NV border through the central part of the state known as the Sierra Nevada region, CA-03 has no major metro centers within it and is mainly comprised of rural areas. The largest city in the district is Roseville, with fewer than 142,000 residents. CA-03 is also home to Lake Tahoe, Death Valley National Park, and several national forests.
Less racially diverse post-redistricting in 2022
The CA-03’s geographic boundaries were redrawn in the post-2020 Census redistricting process, making it less racially diverse. Today, only 14.3% of its residents are Latino; 7.4% are AAPI; 1.5% are African American; and less than 1% are Native American. Approximately 70% of its residents are White.
Although the CA Redistricting Commission considered the district to be a toss-up, national political pundits rate the CA-03 as having a PVI of R+4. Our New Majority Index rating for the district is slightly less Republican, with an NMI score of R+3. Notably, Trump won this district in 2020 by less than two points.
The congressional seat is currently held by Republican Kevin Kiley who won the seat in 2022 after redistricting. In its previous incarnation, the district had been considered a Democratic stronghold. CA-03 included much of the Sacramento Valley and had been represented by Democrat John Garamendi for several cycles.
Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley
Incumbent Kevin Kiley (R) and Jessica Morse (D)
Incumbent Kiley is an attorney and a former educator and is in his first term as the district’s Congressional Representative. Prior to being elected to Congress, Kiley served in the CA State Assembly. As a member of Congress, Kiley has refused to say whether President Biden won the 2020 election legitimately. He has also opposed California Governor Gavin Newsom’s executive order requiring all new vehicles in CA to be zero emission by 2035. Kiley supports charter schools, and introduced legislation to ban state and local governments from implementing vaccine requirements. In 2021, Kiley announced his candidacy for governor of California in that year’s recall election, but his campaign was ultimately unsuccessful.
Democrat challenger Jessica Morse
Having won almost 43% of the vote to Kiley’s 55% in the March 2024 nonpartisan primary, Democrat Jessica Morse will challenge Kiley for the CA-03 seat in November. A fifth-generation Californian, Morse’s ancestors crossed the Sierra on covered wagons and ultimately settled in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada. A national leader in wildlands and wildfire policy, she continues her family’s legacy of environmental stewardship. In 2005, Morse worked in Iraq alongside U.S. troops for 18 months as part of the U.S. State Department’s humanitarian branch. A public servant to the core, Morse volunteered on the ground in Paradise, CA after the devastating Camp Fire as well as establishing the Fresno Farm Bridge to help family farms stay afloat during the COVID-19 crisis.