Democrats Positioned to Hold Senate

 

By Steve Phillips

Photo by Colin Lloyd on Unsplash

One simple fact should frame all election analyses: the Democratic presidential nominee has won the popular vote in every single election since 1992 (with the sole exception of John Kerry’s narrow 2004 loss). 

Most recently Joe Biden won by seven million votes. What this data shows is that there is a progressive New American Majority consisting of an electoral coalition between  people of color (who make up roughly 75% of this majority) and a meaningful minority of whites (roughly 40%). This majority is growing every single day as 11,000 people—half of them people of color— turn 18 and become eligible to vote. (The threat posed by these demographic trends is clearly understood by Republicans. That’s why they devote so much time, energy, and attention to trying to prevent members of the New American Majority from voting.)

The current conventional wisdom that Democrats are facing an uphill battle in the November midterm elections is grounded in an incorrect interpretation of the tendency for the party that controls the White House to fare poorly in midterms. But that trend is largely a function of apathy and complacency among the voters whose party won the White House, which drives down that party’s voter turnout. It’s not because voters are punishing the party in power by voting for the other party. 

Democratic losses in the midterms are far from foreordained, and if they work on boosting turnout, they actually stand a good chance of increasing their margin in the U.S. Senate. Currently there are 48 Democrats, 2 Independents who caucus with the Dems, and 50 Republicans serving in the Senate. VP Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote and Democrats control the Senate under a power sharing agreement. There are 34 Senate races this November. 

Heading into the homestretch of the election, Democrats have opportunities to pick up as many as five seats and hold four that were previously considered vulnerable. 

Temperature gauge

The macro political environment is actually improving Democratic prospects by firing up their voters and clarifying the stakes. The backlash to the Supreme Court’s Handmaid’s Tale-like decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is real and powerful, leading Tom Bonior, head of the data firm TargetSmart, to write a column titled, “Women Are So Fired Up to Vote, I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It.”

In a very pleasant political surprise, the Biden White House seems to have “found religion” about the electoral importance of inspiring and mobilizing the New American Majority. A Washington Post article on the backstory behind the decision to pursue student loan debt relief found that Biden, “became convinced that aggressive student debt relief would give Democrats a better chance of holding Congress in the fall through a badly needed boost from young voters and people of color.” And the Inflation Reduction Act marked the historic passage of climate change legislation, a key priority for young people in particular.

Pick Up Possibilities

 

Florida: Val Demings (D) v. Marco Rubio (R)

  • “Sheriff Demings” is outraising incumbent Marco Rubio, but he still has more cash on hand. Demings will have more than enough money to compete in November.

  • More than one-third of registered voters in Florida are people of color. With targeted outreach to these voters, Demings could increase the relatively lackluster average turnout rates of the POC population relative to whites (just under 60% of people of color turned out in the 2020 election compared to 67% among whites) and pull off a victory in November.

  • There are 3,112,000 POC voters in Florida who did not vote in 2018, and the Demings team is registering and doing extensive voter outreach with these eligible voters.

North Carolina: Cheri Beasley (D) v. Ted Budd (R)

  • This open seat creates a better opportunity for Democrats especially ever since the GOP nominated their weaker candidate.

  • Beasley is currently outraising Budd; she bought $10.3 million in TV ads vs. $2.1 million by Budd.

  • North Carolina has a large unaffiliated group of registered voters who likely will be turned off by Budd's close ties to Trump and the Club for Growth, a Republican-aligned super PAC that is supporting Budd.

  • One-third of registered voters in North Carolina are people of color, but they vote at lower rates than whites, especially Latinos who trail whites by over 17 points.

  • There are 1,189,000 POC voters in NC who did not vote in 2018, and Team Beasley is registering and doing extensive voter outreach with these eligible voters.

Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (D) v. Mehmet Oz (R)

  • Fetterman currently leads by double digits in multiple polls, although recent Emerson College polling shows his lead shrinking.

  • Republican nominee Dr. Oz is flailing after showing how out of touch he is with normal people with his “crudité” video attempting to pass himself off as a commoner.

  • Almost 1 million POC are eligible to vote in PA but didn’t cast ballots in 2018. Democrats are targeting outreach to African American, Latino, and AAPI communities in PA to ensure that they register and vote in 2022.

Ohio: Tim Ryan (D) v. J.D. Vance (R) 

  • Although Democrats not named Sherrod Brown have fared poorly in Ohio in recent years, Tim Ryan has made this race surprisingly competitive as he runs against Hillbilly Elegy author—and now hedge fund honcho—J.D. Vance who is trying to run on a narrative rather than a record.

  • This race is a virtual tie according to FiveThirtyEight despite structural advantages for the GOP.

  • Ryan successfully cast himself as the champion of working families and Vance has failed to seize on opportunities to rally the Trump base.  

  • Ryan is currently outspending Vance in ad buys, but the GOP has thrown $28 million into the race.

  • Over 809,000 POC are eligible to vote in Ohio but didn’t cast ballots in 2018, and the Ryan campaign will need to improve turnout among these communities to win in November.

Wisconsin: Mandela Barnes (D) v. Ron Johnson (R)

  • A recent Fox News poll shows Barnes with a 4-point lead (50% Barnes to 46% Johnson). Marquette Law School poll shows Barnes with a 7-point lead.

  • Johnson continues to assert falsehoods and has low approval ratings, but he managed to win once before despite his outlandish comments, so it’s too soon to say if Barnes has locked it up yet.

  • Wisconsin is home to well over half a million POC eligible voters, yet in 2018 fewer than half (262,000) made their voices heard at the ballot box. Team Barnes will need to target the 275,000 POC eligible voters who sat out in 2018 to increase their 2022 turnout rate. 

Holding Strong:

Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) v. Blake Masters (R)

  • Masters won the nomination with racist and misogynist rhetoric, but is now trying to recast himself as a family man concerned about women.

  • Masters’ extremist history will make it hard for his backtracking to stick. Recent polling shows Kelly at or above 50%, and FiveThirtyEight gives the incumbent, Kelly, an average lead of 8.3 points.

  • With over 35% of registered voters in Arizona being Latino, targeted voter engagement among this group will enable Kelly to prevail. In particular, increased turnout among Latinos this cycle can prove pivotal, given only 61% of registered Latinos voted in 2020 compared to 77% of white voters.

Georgia: Raphael Warnock (D) v. Herschel Walker (R)

  • Cook Political Report says: "Walker has baggage that could take up a football field."

  • With one-third of registered voters in Georgia being African American, Warnock's turnout effort will prove critical. 

  • In 2020, Black voters lagged behind whites in turnout rates by over 6 percentage points. If Warnock can tap into potential Black voters, he can easily win a full Senate term.

  • Warnock will also benefit from Stacey Abrams’ massive Get Out the Vote operation that helped propel him into office in the first place in January 2021.

New Hampshire: TBD (Primary Sept. 12th) v. Maggie Hassan (R)

  • This is one of the few true “swing states” in the country, where voters, mainly white, regularly shift their allegiances between the parties, and most races are narrowly decided.

  • Hassan has lackluster numbers with only 39% of voters saying she deserves to be reelected.

  •  But the GOP seems unlikely to find a nominee who will be able to oust her. Trump and Senate dysfunction kept their strongest candidate, Sununu, out of the race.

Nevada: Catherine Cortez Masto (D) v. Adam Laxalt (R)

  • Former Nevada attorney general, Adam Laxalt, is not as extremist as other Republicans, although he co-chaired Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign in the state.

  • Incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina to serve in the U.S. Senate has distanced herself from Biden and opposed student loan forgiveness.

  • Polling average gives her a 3.7 point lead over Laxalt.

  • One in five registered voters in NV are Latinos. Dems have been working for months to counter trends in registration that show Latinos moving away from the party. If Dems can increase the usual dismal turnout among Latinos in the state (46% compared to 70% among white registered voters), Cortez Mastos could easily hold this seat. 

 
 
Steve Phillips