The 2026 SWAMP Audit of the Democratic Party
The Democratic Party is afflicted with Straight White American Male Preference (SWAMP) and it imperils the Party’s chances of winning the 2026 midterm elections.
Why SWAMP Imperils the 2026 Midterms
Nearly half of all Democratic voters are people of color. Add women, and the vast majority of Democratic ballots are not cast by white men. When the Democratic Party and allied independent-expenditure infrastructure leadership looks nothing like the coalition supplying votes, that is a strategic defect, not just a fairness issue.
The Untapped Majority
The greatest untapped potential sits with non-voting people of color, who tend to lean Democratic.
The Compounding Defect
SWAMP produces poor decisions, unstrategic allocation, and neglect of investments that would maximize winning.
The Stakes
The ubiquity of SWAMP imperils the prospects of winning in November 2026.
Part One — Leadership
Are White Men Smarter Than Everybody Else?
Whoever controls the money determines which voters Democrats prioritize, where they spend their resources, and which consultants and firms they hire.
Our analysis finds a troubling pattern: the Democratic Party is disproportionately putting its trust and resources in the hands of white people, especially white men.
🔍Finding — 67% of Top Campaign Leadership Positions Are Held by White Men
The Numbers
White men hold 67% of the top campaign leadership positions in the Democratic Party—and 100% of those leadership positions are held by white people.
| Entity | Top Decision-Maker | Race / Gender |
2026 Estimated Spending (Based on Avg. of 2022 & 2024 Actual Spending) |
|---|---|---|---|
| DNC |
Ken Martin
Chair
|
White Male | $315,027,836* |
| DCCC |
Suzan DelBene
Chair
|
White Female | $349,817,531 |
| DSCC |
Kirsten Gillibrand
Chair
|
White Female | $285,365,774 |
| Senate Majority PAC (IE) |
J.B. Poersch
President
|
White Male | $359,276,807 |
| House Majority PAC (IE) |
Mike Smith
President
|
White Male | $218,835,361 |
| DGA |
Andy Beshear
Chair
|
White Male | $169,850,000 |
*Does not represent average since the DNC’s role is different in non-presidential years; figure represents actual spending in 2022 midterm.
Source: Federal Election Commission, www.fec.gov/data; DGA data from ProPublica 527 Explorer — DGA Profile.
🔍Finding — White Men Control Nearly Twice Their Share of Consulting Dollars
The Numbers
Of $154 million spent on the top 48 consultants, 92% went to firms run by white people, and 57% went to firms run by white men.
White-Led Consulting Firms Receive a Disproportionate Share of Dollars from the Democratic Party (2026)
Source: Analysis of FEC 2026 disbursement records through mid-2026.
Most Democratic TV ads avoid mentioning race or gender out of caution about alienating white men. Seeking one additional vote via TV ads costs $200. By contrast, GOTV methods cost far less.
Part Two — Voters
Do White Male Voters Matter More Than Everybody Else?
🚪Door-to-Door
$33 per vote
📞Volunteer Phone
$36 per vote
✉️Direct mail
$94 per vote
📺tv advertising
$200 per vote
The Democratic Party Continues to Prioritize Persuasion Ads Over Field
In 2024, the Party's six top entities spent $1.33 billion on persuasion advertising and just $64 million on field and voter mobilization—an 18:1 ratio.
Source: John Sides, Lynn Vavreck, and Christopher Warshaw. “The Effect of Television Advertising in United States Elections.” American Political Science Review 116, no. 2 (2022): 702–718. D. P. Green & A. S. Gerber (2023), Get Out the Vote: How to increase voter turnout (5th ed.), Brookings Institution Press.
🔍 Finding — For Every $1 on Mobilization, Democrats Spend $18 on Persuasion Ads
Democratic Party Spending in 2024
Source: Analysis of Federal Election Commission Schedule B itemized disbursements and Schedule E independent expenditures, 2023–2024 two-year transaction period, retrieved July 30, 2026. Analysis covers six committees, and $2.34 billion in 124,192 non-memo transactions.
🔍 Finding — The Democratic Party has historically wasted 100s of millions of dollars each cycle on chasing white male voters
Part Three — losing
What the Preference Has Cost
2020 Democratic Party Winning Coalition
White Men: Only 26% of 2020 Democratic Vote
Despite representing 29% of the population, white men made up just 26% of Biden's winning coalition. Yet Party spending treats them as the decisive bloc.
Source: 2020 Edison Research exit poll data.
How Groups Voted in 2020 by Race & Gender
Source: Ruth Igielnik, Scott Keeter, and Hannah Hartig, “Behind Biden’s 2020 Victory: An Examination of the 2020 Electorate, Based on Validated Voters”, Pew Research Center, June 30, 2021
White Men are the Demographic Group Least Likely to Support Democrats
In 2020, just 39% of white men voted for Biden, compared with 92% of Black women.
This reflects a broader political divide. Democrats tend to have stronger support among voters who favor racial and gender equality, while Republicans have increasingly appealed to voters who oppose those changes.
Part Four — Winning
Pulling the Democratic Party out of the SWAMP
🔍 Finding — Democrats are focused on the right races—but the wrong voters
The 7 Key Battleground States* Democrats Should Target
* 5 House Seats in California
Democrats have identified the key Senate, House, and governor’s races they need to win in 2026. But their strategy and spending are heavily focused on winning over white men, while overlooking other voters who could be critical to taking back Congress.
Democrats need to flip just three House seats to regain control.
The Democratic Party and its allied independent-expenditure infrastructure should focus on the 7 Key Battleground States as show in the map above. A data-driven allocation of the roughly $1 billion Democrats will spend should direct $700 million toward mobilizing the 70% of battleground voters who are not straight white men. Specific recommendations within those districts are as follows:
Recommendations
De-SWAMP the Spending: Invest $700 Million in Non-SWAMP Mobilization
1
Latino Initiative — 18% of all Democratic Party Spending
Focus on Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska. Fund Latino-led organizers and Spanish-language outreach.
2
Black Voter Initiative — 15% of all Democratic Party Spending
Essential for North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Invest in Black-led organizations.
3
Alaska has the highest Native share of any state (13%). Engaging Native Alaskans is a prudent deployment of resources.
Alaska Native Mobilization — $5M
4
Epstein Files Accountability Campaign
Transparency and justice for women, over 50% of the population and eligible voters.
5
Nearly 4 million young Americans become eligible to vote yearly. Blanket campuses nationwide.