By Steve Phillips and Dr. Julie Martínez Ortega

The race in CA-45 pits the Korea-born right winger and first-term incumbent Michelle Steel against Taiwanese American and Democratic Party challenger Jay Chen. Chen, a U.S. Naval Reserve officer and the grandson of Taiwanese immigrants is making Steel fight for her political life, and he may very well oust her from office this November.

HIGH LEVEL

With midterms less than a month a way, the gloves have come off and Steel has employed images of a hammer and sickle and the Communist Manifesto—a repeat tactic she used in 2020 to narrowly win the seat by smearing her rival in the eyes of the district’s large and powerful Vietnamese community.

Meanwhile, the Chen campaign has maintained his steady beat of messaging depicting Steel as out of step with the district’s electorate when it comes to civil rights and economic growth. Nevermind that Chen is a decorated Naval Reserve officer with top-secret security clearance.

California’s ballot measure to amend the state Constitution and enshrine abortion rights has received high support from AAPI voters, keeping this issue front and center, despite Steel’s attempts to divert attention with fabricated controversies, such as misrepresenting Chen as being in collusion with China. By contrast, Steel’s voting record against protecting abortion rights and same sex marriage as well as her anti-democracy votes against the impeachment of former President Trump, leave little room to believe that any of the mud she’s slinging will stick.

NMI RATING

CA-45 is generally considered by many to be a Lean Republican district, although the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is D+2. But our New Majority Index indicates that the district should be considered a likely Democratic district with a rating of D+9.

GROUPS ON THE GROUND

As in neighboring district CA-40, the turnout work among voters of color is anchored by Orange County Action (OC Action), a group with deep roots in Southern California. OC Action was founded in 2017 to build an “AAPI-Latinx-Labor-Environmental Justice Alliance” and to develop progressive political power.

The group traditionally endorses progressive candidates in Orange County ranging from congressional candidates to school board positions, and mayoral candidates to city council members. OC Action seeks to lift voices from leaders who uphold the organization’s core values of “true democracy, just transition/recovery, housing as a human right, transformation of public education, immigrant justice, and healthy and thriving lives”, all of which are proven methods for mobilizing POC voters.

TOPLINE NUMBERS

Party registration in CA-45 is almost evenly split between registered Democratic and Republican voters (37.8% and 32.3%, respectively). One of the most competitive districts nationally, this newly created CD is widely considered a seat where California’s AAPI community can elect a representative of its choosing given its Asian American plurality. Over a third of the electorate is AAPI (37%). About half of the AAPI community are of Vietnamese descent and the district is anchored by the area known as Little Saigon. Latino and African Americans comprise another 26% of the district, making this a heavily people of color district, with white voters comprising only 36% of the district.

With two AAPI candidates on the ballot this fall, this race should come down to who the district’s voters of color feel better represents their interests, which would heavily favor Chen given Steel’s voting record on key issues of importance to California voters. In 2020, 76% of AAPI voters supported Biden. However, turnout remains the ultimate determinant, and Republicans are still favored to draw their supporters out in higher numbers. In the June 2022 primary, Steel garnered 57% of the vote while Chen got 43%.

FINANCIALS

PROJECTED VOTES IN 2022

If eligible voters of color in this newly drawn district were to turn out to vote at the same rates as 2020 white voters in CA-45, Democrats could win this seat.

In 2022, there would be over 25,732 additional voters of color in CA-45 casting ballots if they turned out to vote at the same rate as white CA-45 voters in 2020.
If those additional voters of color supported the Dem candidate at the same rates as they did in 2020, Dems could see almost 19,486 additional votes for their nominee.
The GOP margin of victory in Steel’s 2020 House race against Democrat Harley Rouda was only 8,376 votes in 2020, which is less than a third of the potential voters of color who could turnout in the 2022 general election in the newly drawn district. Among voters in the new CA-45 that neighbor’s Steel’s current district, Democrats hold just shy of a 20K potential vote advantage, according to our NMI calculations.

How to Hold the House: The Asian American Plurality in Southern California