Senate Majority PAC / Majority Forward
Website: senatemajority.com
Founded: 2011
Total Raised in 2020: $166,793,848
Transparency  |
Senate Majority PAC's website and social media presence is sparse. It does much of its work via the entity Majority Forward, a 501c4 that does not disclose its spending to the FEC, and that entity's public representations about its program plans are also minimal. What information is available there does not include any rationale or explanation of the strategy being employed. News reporting does include several stories about SMP's plans for spending on races, but that information does not conform with SMP's FEC filings, making it difficult to discern how well its statements to the media reflect its actual plans. Past major donors to SMP have confirmed they have never received written explanations for the group's spending plans nor written post-election summaries about what worked and what didn't. |
Geographic targeting
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Last year, we unveiled a Senate winnability index, developed by PhDs and data scientists, that showed there are eight races (in seven states) that should be prioritized based on the likelihood of flipping them from Red to Blue: CO, AZ, GA, ME, NC, TX, and IA. However, SMP's FEC reports indicate that their funding priorities omit the two races in Georgia with candidates poised to win. As of June 30, 2020 SMP had not reported any expenditures on those races. Meanwhile, SMP spent over $7.8 million in Iowa, a state lacking most of the strong indicators of a likely victory that are present in GA. Also, SMP has spent more than $5M in Michigan, which is not a Democratic pickup state, and the Democratic incumbent leads by nearly 8 pts in polling. |
Demographic targeting  |
Although its spending through June 30th only indicates slightly over $1 million in Arizona, it appears that significantly more has been committed to the state. SMP's 2018 funding in AZ was well timed, and they focused on supporting the existing statewide field program led by local organizations with expertise in outreach to Latino and Native American voters. Moreover, in the 2020 cycle, it is supporting entities such as Somos Votantes, which has a strong record of successful voter outreach to Latinos. However, in Georgia, as of the end of July, SMP had yet to spend or commit funds to either of the two Senate races, much less focused the use of their funds on GA's African American voters who would be critical to a 2020 victory. In North Carolina, the top target of SMP, there is little evidence of any targeting of African American voters, who comprise 50% of Democratic voters and should therefore be the focus of 50% of the $12 million spent there. |
Data-informed strategy*  |
The grossly disproportionate focus on Iowa and Michigan, the omission of Georgia, and the overlooking of African Americans in North Carolina raise serious questions about the underlying analysis of where and how to prioritize spending. SMP's dollar allocation varies greatly from our winnability index, developed by PhDs and data scientists. While reasonable minds can differ, there is scant indication that SMP takes into account any data beyond current polling numbers and fails to account for past election results, and population trends and shifts that can affect the composition of the electorate. |
| OVERALL GRADE |  |
Senate Majority PAC 2020 Expenditure Overview
*In January 2020, a team of Data Scientists, led by Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega, developed a multi-factorial formula to assess the winnability of the various seats the Democrats need to flip in order to gain control of the U.S. Senate. This table compares the SMP investments with the relative winnability of the seats. The underlying analysis and calculations can be found here. Note that the Montana ranking was made before Steve Bullock entered the race, which would raise its winnability.