Political Tug-of-War in AZ-06: Who Will Prevail?

By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

Saguaro National Park

This week we’re taking a look at AZ-06, a district held by Democrats for several cycles until Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick retired in 2022. Subsequently, Juan Ciscomani, a Mexican American Republican, bested Democrat Kirsten Engel with 50.7% of the vote in the 2022 midterm election. Engel is running uncontested for the Democratic nomination on July 30, 2024, so AZ-06 voters will once again choose between these two candidates in a November rematch.

A Competitive but Winnable District

AZ-06 is situated in southeastern Arizona, with its southwestern boundary encircling the Tucson area. The district is primarily rural and semi-rural, with a suburban area outside of Tucson. Most of the district’s population is located in these suburbs. AZ-06 was one of the 18 districts that would have voted for Biden in the 2020 presidential election, had they existed in their current configuration, while being won or held by a congressional Republican in 2022. The district is 63.1% white and 24.75% Latino. The Cook Political Index for AZ-06 is R+3 and the NMI is D+2. Cook lists the district as a “Republican Toss Up.”

Rematch Between Engel and Ciscomani

Kirsten Engel is a former member of the AZ State Legislature, having served in the AZ State Senate in 2021 and in the House of Delegates from 2017-2021. She is a professor of law at the University of Arizona, focusing on environmental and administrative law. Many of Arizona’s major Democratic elected officials and labor unions have endorsed Engel in this rematch. The Democratic Campaign Committee lists her on their Red to Blue list of priority districts for fundraising. 

Freshman Republican Ciscomani’s first election was in 2008, when he lost a bid for a seat in the AZ Legislature. He didn’t seek higher office again until his successful race for Congress in 2022. His professional career consists of working in political offices, including an 8-year stint with Governor Ducey of Arizona, a position he held until his election to Congress. He praised the US Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. The Wall Street Journal reported that, “he would be open to immigration reform and legal protections for young immigrants who came to the U.S. as children.” 

In 2020, Democrat Kirkpatrick won the district with 55.1% of the vote. In the 2022 election to fill the open seat, Republican Ciscomani won 177,201 (50.7%) votes to Engel’s 171,969 (49.5%) votes, with a margin of victory of just 5,232 votes. Given the tight margins over the past two election cycles, turnout will be a key factor in the 2024 election. 

Latino Turnout Will be Key to Democratic Victory in 2024

Turnout among all voters nationally tends to dip in midterm elections relative to presidential election years. Unfortunately, the dip is not evenly distributed among different racial groups, with Latino voters tending to sit out midterms at higher rates compared to their white counterparts. Similar to most places in the country, Arizona’s Latino voters historically support Democrats over Republicans at much higher rates than white voters. In 2020, Latinos statewide supported Biden at 61% while only 46% of whites who cast ballots supported him.

In the AZ-06 2022 congressional race, the disproportionate share of Latinos who didn’t vote likely contributed significantly to Ciscomani’s election. In 2020, Democrat Kirkpatrick won the election when turnout among Latino registered voters was 64% and white turnout was 81%. But two years later, in 2022, when Democrat Engel ran, the Latino turnout rate dropped dramatically by 20 percentage points, down to 44%. (It’s worth noting that even at its high point during the presidential election of 2020, Latino turnout at 64% was still lower than the turnout rate among the district’s white voters during the 2022 midterm election at 68%. In other words, Latino turnout in AZ-06 is consistently far below its potential.) Had Latinos voted at their 2020 turnout rate of 64% in the 2022 midterm election, they would have contributed an additional 19,655 votes. If those AZ Latino voters supported the Democrat at the same rate they supported Biden in 2020 (61%), they would have generated an additional 11,990 votes for Engel, which is over two times Ciscomani’s 5,232 margin of victory. Once again, Latinos hold the potential to add a Democrat to their state’s congressional delegation.