By Dr. Julie Martinez Ortega

This week we focus on a district race in the Lone Star state where Democrats are fighting to turn the state a little less Red with each electoral cycle. The TX-15 district includes a thin strip of the far south of Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley where Tex-mex cuisine can trace some of its origins.

Pro-“Tio” Trump Incumbent

Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz is a congressional freshman in the TX-15, having just won the seat in 2022 in this recently reconfigured congressional district. De La Cruz, 49, is a Mexican American Latina who has led several small businesses, most recently an insurance agency. She was raised by a single mother and holds socially conservative positions. She’s stated publicly that Trump has shown that he values the Latino community through his policies, and she dismisses his racist and misogynistic words and actions by likening him to your favorite “tio” (uncle) who speaks bluntly. In particular, she has supported the Trump approach to immigration policy, which is a very salient issue in this border congressional district. She’s called Biden’s position on the US-Mexico border a “disaster” and agreed with extreme immigration positions expressed by Elon Musk. She also supported the Laken Riley Act which would have required ICE to detain and deport undocumented people who committed theft, shoplifting, and other crimes.

Contestant from family of farm workers

De La Cruz bested fellow Latina Michelle Vallejo, 32, a Mexican American Democrat, in 2022. Vallejo has stepped forward to contest for the seat again this year. She describes herself as coming from a family of farm workers, immigrants, and entrepreneurs. Before she lost her mother to a battle with multiple sclerosis, Vallejo often traveled with her across the border into Mexico seeking access to medical care. Vallejo’s talent, discipline, and hard work during high school won her a seat in her undergraduate freshman class at prestigious Columbia University where she earned a degree in political science and history before returning to her South Texas community to put her skills to work for the betterment of her fellow Texans.

Mexican Americans make up 77% of the district’s eligible voters

The TX-15 is a district comprised of mainly rural regions that, like most rural parts of the country, tend to be more conservative. McAllen is the only major population center within this thin strip of a district that stretches north-south through an economically challenged southern part of the state. The district’s lines changed dramatically after the 2020 Census, but it remains a district that strongly favors Democrats, with an NMI score of D+14, meaning that it’s 14 percentage points more likely to elect a Democrat over a Republican compared to the average House congressional district. The Democratic nature of the district is primarily due to its large share of Mexican Americans (who primarily tend to support Dems), who make up 77% of the district’s electorate (eligible voters).

Voting trends in the TX-15

In 2022, De La Cruz beat Vallejo by a healthy margin of over 12,800 votes. At first glance, it seems like Republican De La Cruz has little to worry about this November and that this district is actually more Red than anticipated. But if we peel back a few layers, the outlook for a Democratic take back of a seat is much brighter.

TX-15 among the districts with the lowest low voter participation

TX-15 REGISTERED TO VOTE, BY RACE

The TX-15 is predominantly Mexican American and is located in a part of the state and nation with a deep history of political, social, and economic disenfranchisement of Mexican Americans. As such, it should come as no surprise that the district ranked 401 out of 435 districts in 2022 when it comes to voter turnout for federal elections. Indeed, only 151,889 people cast votes in the district for this race, with De La Cruz getting 80,978 to Vallejo’s 68,097. Compare this to TX-37, a solid Blue district where the very popular and entrenched incumbent handily beat the challenger by almost 4 times as many votes. In that TX-37 race, 285,789 voters cast ballots, which is almost double the number cast in the TX-15. The overall turnout rate among registered voters in the TX-15 was 39% whereas the turnout rate in the TX-37 was 54%. The overall voter registration rates in these two districts are also quite different, with the TX-15 having only 409,000 people registered while the TX-37 has over 527,000 registrants.

Racial differences in civic participation

TX-15 2022 BALLOTS CAST, BY RACE

TX-15 2022 Turn out Rate White vs Latino Voters

The differences in turnout by race in these two districts are striking. Latinos comprise 77% of the eligible voters in the TX-15, so their turnout can make or break a candidate’s chance at victory. In the TX-15, only 33% of the registered Latinos cast ballots in 2022 while 46% cast ballots in the TX-37 that year, a dramatic difference. Meanwhile, registered white voters in each of these districts voted at almost identical rates, 56% in the TX-15 and 59% in the TX-37. In the TX-15, this resulted in white voters casting 53,000 votes compared to a little over 101,000 votes cast by Mexican Americans. Had the racial breakdown of votes cast been proportional to those individuals registered to vote, Latino votes would have outnumbered whites by an over 3 to 1 ratio. Given that Latinos are much more likely than whites in TX to support Democrats, the actual 2022 outcome (that is, the GOP victory by De La Cruz) would almost certainly have been different had Latinos turned out at a higher rate.

From exit polling we can see that in 2020, 58% of Latinos in Texas voted for Joe Biden, while only 33% of whites did. We can use this info to estimate what would have been the 2020 outcome in TX-15 had ALL registered voters cast ballots. In other words, we estimate the votes that would have been won by De La Cruz and Vallejo if there had been 100% turnout among all registered voters in the TX-15. The result is that Democrat Vallejo would have been projected to win the election by about 3 percentage points.

Conclusion

With a predominantly Mexican American electorate, the TX-15 should be a solidly Blue district where the Democratic nominee coasts to victory each November. But the racially disproportionate and obscenely low voter participation patterns among Latinos in this district led to a perverse election outcome in the first race run here after the 2020 creation of new district boundaries. Those who claim to care about political representation will have no choice but to execute robust registration and GOTV programs to ensure that this district sends a representative to Washington who reflects the will of the district’s constituents.

Rematch Among Two Latinas in Mexican American-majority district in South Texas