Newsom taking Black and brown voters for granted may cost him recall election
By Ludovic Blain, Director, California Donor Table
Source: @guisanden24
Despite having raised $57 million, Gov. Gavin Newsom's recall campaign is about to blow it in the final stretch, imperiling not only his governorship but also the quality of lives of tens of millions of Californians. All because his campaign—as Democrats tend to do—is planning to spend most of their money on last-minute ads rather than on mobilizing voters of color who make up the majority of the state electorate.
Over the past ten years Democratic and progressive California donors and activists helped win key elections in other states. This time national donors must step up ASAP (election day is Tuesday, September 14) to close the budget gaps of independent political organizations rooted in communities of color running “No” campaigns here in California against the recall.
National donors must 1) urge Governor Newsom to spend more of his campaign funds on direct voter contact of voters of color, and 2) give directly to organizations that do that work (see below for list).
Roots of the recall
The same white supremacists behind Trump and the January 6th insurrection have targeted California by promoting the recall. In addition to being angry that California took COVID seriously, their goal is to undermine California’s multiracial democracy, uproot the power progressive communities of color have built over the past decades, and build Republican momentum to take back the House in 2022. (At least three Republican-held and likely several Democratic-held House seats are contestable in California next year.) Right-wingers pushing for Newsom’s recall are being helped by $22 million dollars from national Republican leadership and donors, as well as 6 million Golden State Trump voters, the country’s largest group of Trump voters in any state.
This recall election, a statewide special election, is just shy of a month away. Ballots have already started dropping; votes will start to be cast in just a few days. If the election was today, according to polls, 51% of California voters would vote to recall Newsom. (Poll respondents state that their main reasons for supporting the recall are: Newsom’s spending decisions, mishandling of unemployment, and handling of COVID restrictions.) Out of California's 22 million registered voters, 46% are Democrats, 24% are Republicans, and 30% are independents or registered to third parties.
Newsom’s team on track to waste millions on ads
The nearly $57 million that Governor Newsom and his allies have raised is more than double what the campaigns for the recall have raised. That’s enough money to defeat the upcoming recall if Newsom and his team spend it wisely. Unfortunately, they’re heading down the wrong path. We believe Newsom’s campaign has been saving most of that money for a huge ad blitz in the final month. This is a very expensive and risky strategy. Based on both recent polling and field experiences from our civic engagement partners—savvy electoral organizers rooted in Black, Latinx and AAPI communities across the state–their plan is unsound.
Newsom’s team’s campaign has thus far committed to spend a mere few million dollars (about $5 million, based on our conversations with people in the know) on field and other outreach to voters of color who make up the majority of California’s eligible voters and, according to Pew Forum, a whopping 60% of California’s Democratic majority.
The governor’s efforts were already up against the challenge of overall Democratic apathy and GOP excitement regarding the recall. As the Public Policy Institute of California wrote last month: “The likely voters who wanted to remove Governor Newsom were much more interested in the recall than those who wanted to keep him in office. If the governor’s supporters remain less engaged in the upcoming election, then the recall could end up being closer than the polls to date have indicated.”
On top of that enthusiasm gap, Republicans continue to show that they understand the importance of lifting up candidates of color and influencing the opinion of voters of color. The GOP successfully used disinformation campaigns in 2020 to flip California congressional and mayoral races. In many of those cases they beat Democratic candidates of color with their own Asian, Latino and Black and women Republican candidates. The GOP is repeating that strategy for the CA gubernatorial recall. The leading recall candidate is Larry Elder, a Black Republican who thinks the state’s minimum wage should be $0.00. There’s also a Republican campaign targeting Latinos. And a right-wing Asian infrastructure, built to oppose the reinstatement of affirmative action, is engaging Asian American communities, especially in Orange County where this infrastructure has had electoral success.
For Republicans, getting voters of color to support the recall is the key to victory. According to a recent poll, Latinos are the only racial/ethnic group for the recall. Latinos/Hispanics are in favor of the recall (54% recall/41% keep. White respondents were split (48% recall/49% keep). Most Black respondents (41% recall/57% keep) and Asian respondents (30% recall/49% keep) were in favor of keeping Newsom as governor.
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
Black and brown leaders can save the day...again
California actually does have what it takes for Democrats and progressives to win. Groups like the Million Voters Project Action Fund, and regional civic engagement groups like Alliance San Diego, Inland Empire United, Orange County Civic Engagement Table Action, Communities for a New California, and Lift Up Contra Costa Action have the infrastructure and multi-cycle track record of mobilizing voters—especially voters of color—at scale.
These regional groups helped Democrats win congressional seats in 2012, 2018, 2020, turning previously red areas like the Inland Empire, the Central Valley and Orange County purple. They helped elect progressives like Assembly Majority Leader Eloise Goméz Reyes in Amazon warehouse-land in 2016, Anaheim City Councilmember Dr. Jose Moreno in Disney territory in 2016, and have helped turn San Diego from a right-wing Republican haven to a county with a progressive majority on the Board of Supervisors. California Donor Table (CDT) powered those wins. (CDT is a network of donors committed to building power in California's communities of color and making lasting progressive political change.)
What’s at stake
Not only is defeating next month’s recall important in and of itself, but allowing a high-profile Democratic governor (considered among the most progressive in the country) to be recalled in the nation’s largest and bluest state would have national implications.
As we saw in 2012, 2018, and 2020, the road to a Democratic congressional majority goes through California. The regions in California where the Republican recall campaign efforts are gaining the most traction are exactly where Democrats need to win not only against this recall, but in congressional races next year: the Central Valley, Orange County, San Diego, and the outskirts of LA.
How you can help
Please join us to close the budget gap of key people of color-led political organizations who can communicate with and mobilize Latino voters running “No” campaigns here in California by 1) urging Governor Newsom to spend more of his campaign funds on direct voter contact of voters of color, and 2) directly giving to these organizations.
CDT has raised a total of $1.4 million so far for anti-recall-related efforts in California over the past three months directly to the above-mentioned groups. These groups still have a $1.1 million gap. Please give online below, or ask us for wiring instructions for larger donations:
We are all in this together. The stakes are enormous, for California and the nation. For those of us committed to justice, we must do what needs to be done to win.