Polling Bump for White Male Presidential Candidates


One of the key criteria for qualifying for participation in the Democratic presidential primary debates is a candidate’s performance in public polls. The appeal of such a criterion is the ostensibly neutral nature of such data, but a New York Times/Siena College poll released in late 2019 shows how much of a boost white men are getting in the polls and how much of a penalty women and people of color candidates face.

What this data shows is that Democrats are showing preferential treatment to white males.

The poll suggests that most white Democratic voters think most voters overall are heavily influenced by racism and sexism. As a result, they are gravitating toward white male candidates.

There were three major findings based on that poll:

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  • First, 76% said that racism was a major factor in Trump’s victory, and 63% said sexism was a major factor.

  • Second, it showed that white male candidates in general received a 52% Bias Bonus; that is, they benefit from the belief that a white male candidate would have an easier time defeating Trump. 53% of all Iowa Democratic voters (and 66% of Biden supporters and 61% of Buttigieg backers) think a white male would have an easier time winning while just 1% think a white male would have a harder time. 

  • Third, it showed a Bias Penalty for women and African Americans. A 37% penalty for women and 31% for African Americans (the differential between the number who think a woman or African American would have an easier time versus a harder time beating Trump).

For more info, listen to our related podcast episode.